Mr. Bernanke, whom I still believe is a academic deer in the FOMC's headlights, has learned some tough lessons lately. The man, who once proclaimed that deflation was an absolute impossibility under his watch, must be quite perplexed as his Wizard of Oz fantasy is crushed under a twirling house in a tornado of foreclosures.
"Helicopter Ben" has been busy circling the planet in his whirly bird, trying to deliver freshly printed cash to the minions below. But something terrible has happened; something does not compute. There are no people, below. No arm waiving, no hailing Ben's timely arrival, no one to gobble up his pretty little prepackaged predatory parachute-loans. Where have all the dumb people gone? Aren't borrowers just as stupid today as they were yesterday?
Ben is confused, disoriented. Unexpectedly, his Fed helicopter, laden with pallets of immovable counterfeit cash, sputters as fuel runs dry. Dreadfully, Pink Providence 1 goes down in the middle of an abandoned subprime neighborhood. Ben is never heard from again.
My goodness, how could this happen to a professional academic with no market experience?
You see, this funny thing happens when intelligent people act in their own best interest: during peacetime, they run towards helicopter sounds; during wartime, they run away. They actually aren't as stupid as the helicopter pilot, who managed to convince himself they just really, really liked him.
Sunday, March 1, 2009
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OutAndIn here
ReplyDeleteGood effin post. Not many can talk about the economy and make me laugh while being so articulate in language. Thank you.
LOL. I love this one FDR!
ReplyDeleteRegarding Dow 800, wondering how you get 1974 as wave 2? sure looks like wave 4 to me...
ReplyDelete"Regarding Dow 800, wondering how you get 1974 as wave 2? sure looks like wave 4 to me..."
ReplyDeleteThanks, I reworded that sentence to make it clear. In a nut shell, we are looking for the wave 2 of one lower degree within the previous 5 of the same degree. Your are exactly right, 1974 is when the 5th wave began, 1978 is the 62% retrace that forms wave 2 of that 5th wave.
There is less difference than today's Dow decline, but when the Dow is again under 1000 that will be quite a large percentage, so you make a good point. Thanks.
nice blog, but it would be worth logging into more if
ReplyDelete1. you wrote more articles, well more than one a week.
2. You respond to people's questions more often.
Otherwise, go back to MW, where people listened.
personally I'd rather read one blog a week here than dailies about anywhere else.
ReplyDeleteFDR - does it look like systemic financial collapse is close? - because it's starting to look that way to me.
Went to my local credit union today to cash a four thousand dollar check. The teller told me that they didn't have any hundreds, only twenties. I said that would be fine.
ReplyDeleteI always thought in war times people run towards helicopter sounds because they want to get on it.
ReplyDelete"nice blog, but it would be worth logging into more if
ReplyDelete1. you wrote more articles, well more than one a week.
2. You respond to people's questions more often.
Otherwise, go back to MW, where people listened."
While I enjoyed FDRs machinelike dismantling of the inflationistas on MW I enjoy his blog much more.
fwiw... be thankful for what is offered here. The price is right and the information -over the last year- has been priceless. It's not easy doing a blog and I commend FDRAOA for his efforts.
ReplyDeleteFDR - as Jayhawk asked, do you think systemic financial collapse is going to happen?
ReplyDeleteAlso, if that does happen, what will it look like for those
1. Who hold cash.
2. Who hold treasuries
3. Who hold gold.
4. Who hold shares.
Thanks FDR.
"systemic financial collapse"
ReplyDelete1. Guns
2. Ammo
3. Cigarettes
"things get really really bad...worse than this"
1. Short term treasuries
2. Physical cash
imho.
How often FDR posts is his business.
ReplyDeleteIt is what it is.
He doesn't need to post a lot of fluff and crapola because that is what MW already does.
The real benefit from people like FDR is to remind us that nothing is to be taken for granted and anything can potentially happen.
Maybe we won't need the cash in the mattress, maybe the dow will not hit 800. But isn't it nice to be prepared for that scenario instead of being caught totally by surprise?
FDR is not all about being a MW poster. He is about being a lone voice of reason in a crowded room of permabulls.
I hope none of what he says comes true, but I am not going to bet against him either.
FDRAllOverAgain offers a public service out of genuinely good intent, more valuable than gold. Information. Be thankful for the opportunity to read what he says.
ReplyDeleteWilsondidit