Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Gold and Silver
"Buy gold & silver" commercials and infomercials are everywhere.
Somebody is selling.
Somebody is selling.
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WARNING: This blog contains views that are often unconventional. That's because "conventional wisdom" is designed to take your money
DISCLAIMER: This blog may make specific forecasts, nothing is guaranteed so trade at your own risk. Some content might offend organizations created for the sole purpose of stealing other people's money. If you are offended by the content of this blog, don't read it (and stop stealing other people's money)
Issued May 2007 - Short real estate, home builders, bond insurers and leveraged financials
Current Target - Ongoing declines
Issued Oct 2007 - Conservative investors go 100% cash and Treasuries
Next target - Two years of physical cash in home; Ladder short to medium term US Treasuries with the rest; Minimize bank account balances, CDs, and non-treasury bonds; associate high paying bond yields with capital starvation
Issued Oct 2007 - Short Dow (14,100) and broad market indexes
Next Targets:
by 2012 - Dow 3,800
then - as high as Dow 6,000
by 2025 - Dow 800
Issued Oct 2007 - Short Automakers and Airlines
Next Target - More declines, many luxury makes go the way of Duesenberg
by 2020 - pain
Next Target - Gold $475, other PMs with proportionate or greater declines
By 2020 - Gold $225
Next Target - $25
by 2020 - $4
Relentless DEFLATION
Increasing US Dollar buying power as measured by falling real estate prices, stock prices, most asset prices, and falling treasury yields; Periods of excessively negative 3 month treasury yields
Continued transfer of taxpayer funds, high yield preferred stock, risky loan guaranties, and asset holdings to the Federal Reserve and connected bankers in the face of taxpayer clamor; result: increased strain on commercial and consumer credit accelerates deflation
Main Stream Media to continue promoting Federal Reserve and banker agenda: more debt, more debt, more debt
5,000+ bank failures
More bank consolidations intended to shift FDIC insurance obligations to common stockholder losses
FDIC bailout/restructuring that compromises insurance payouts
Massive "New Deal 2.0" in order to transfer maximum wealth from the poor (taxpayers) to the Federal Reserve, connected bankers and corporations, and to benefit politicians; result: same as the original New Deal, economic depression
Supreme Court Increased to 11 Justices by 2015, unless the conservative majority yields first
Higher mileage vehicles go cheap and dirty, not expensive and "Green"
Continuation of 2007+ global cooling
Ya think? :-)
ReplyDeleteI continue to see two page ads in a local paper offering a free delivered armor safe with a purchase of "4100 coins." Also touting gold as an investment that will continue to increase in price well into the future.
ReplyDeleteNow, why would they be doing this if gold is going to $2,500/oz.?
Oh yeah, because gold prices are about to get wrecked.
Gold is like any other product, people. It is produced and sold. In gold's case,resold and resold. Gold resellers are like realtors: they get their % regardless of the direction of price movements. It's the hoarders, like me, that are in it for the long term. I buy on dips, keeping a small % of my assets in it, just in case.
ReplyDeleteI an 5% total portfolio shorting silver and gold with deep out of the money 9 month puts...
ReplyDeleteI really hope we are right
Armagedon
Fdr, what would be our plan B fir tomorrow. Should we stay on a short position and go against the wind or we must exit now?
ReplyDeleteI remember you saying no guts no glory but I really think this is taking us down into hell.
My largest position is short silver, followed closely by short gold.
ReplyDeleteAs I've said repeatedly, I'm not worried about it at all.
I just sold my SLV position that I've held in my IRA for 6 months. Netted about 5% on it.
ReplyDeleteI would normally expect gold and silver to fall as well, for the same reasons you guys put forth, but now that I've exited my position, it has to go up a lot, just to punish me for exiting when I did! :-D
there are 'cash for gold' xxxxercials everywhere too. the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. check out the manipulation in the comex markets and then imagine those shorts being removed--one more time into the bubble, my friends?
ReplyDeleteHi Fdr,
ReplyDeleteMonetary base is exploding...printing money like mad...Should be good for gold..
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BASE
Bullforever
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BASE
ReplyDeleteGreat chart Bf, it shows how amazingly impotent (no r or a) the Federal Reserve really is. The only thing they do really well is steal.
In 120% panic mode, the Fed has only been able to scrape together a few hundred billion 1:1 bucks. JPM, alone, conjured up $35T in boom time cash.
I'm still going to hedge 50/50 cash/gold. Goldbugs and anti-goldbugs are fruitloops. One says gold to multi-thousands; the other has been betting on the gold bubble popping since '05. Whatever.
ReplyDeleteThe thing many anti-goldbugs are assuming is the dollar will be a viable currency in the future. My in-laws woke up one morning to discover the Ruble was null and void. I don't see it too out there to consider the same might happen here.
So what if there alot of gold commercials: there are alot of people out of work who need money, with alot of jewelry on hand. Easy way to make a buck, like the payday loan biz's.