Tuesday, December 1, 2009
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
WARNING: This blog contains views that are often unconventional. That's because "conventional wisdom" is designed to take your money
DISCLAIMER: This blog may make specific forecasts, nothing is guaranteed so trade at your own risk. Some content might offend organizations created for the sole purpose of stealing other people's money. If you are offended by the content of this blog, don't read it (and stop stealing other people's money)
Issued May 2007 - Short real estate, home builders, bond insurers and leveraged financials
Current Target - Ongoing declines
Issued Oct 2007 - Conservative investors go 100% cash and Treasuries
Next target - Two years of physical cash in home; Ladder short to medium term US Treasuries with the rest; Minimize bank account balances, CDs, and non-treasury bonds; associate high paying bond yields with capital starvation
Issued Oct 2007 - Short Dow (14,100) and broad market indexes
Next Targets:
by 2012 - Dow 3,800
then - as high as Dow 6,000
by 2025 - Dow 800
Issued Oct 2007 - Short Automakers and Airlines
Next Target - More declines, many luxury makes go the way of Duesenberg
by 2020 - pain
Next Target - Gold $475, other PMs with proportionate or greater declines
By 2020 - Gold $225
Next Target - $25
by 2020 - $4
Relentless DEFLATION
Increasing US Dollar buying power as measured by falling real estate prices, stock prices, most asset prices, and falling treasury yields; Periods of excessively negative 3 month treasury yields
Continued transfer of taxpayer funds, high yield preferred stock, risky loan guaranties, and asset holdings to the Federal Reserve and connected bankers in the face of taxpayer clamor; result: increased strain on commercial and consumer credit accelerates deflation
Main Stream Media to continue promoting Federal Reserve and banker agenda: more debt, more debt, more debt
5,000+ bank failures
More bank consolidations intended to shift FDIC insurance obligations to common stockholder losses
FDIC bailout/restructuring that compromises insurance payouts
Massive "New Deal 2.0" in order to transfer maximum wealth from the poor (taxpayers) to the Federal Reserve, connected bankers and corporations, and to benefit politicians; result: same as the original New Deal, economic depression
Supreme Court Increased to 11 Justices by 2015, unless the conservative majority yields first
Higher mileage vehicles go cheap and dirty, not expensive and "Green"
Continuation of 2007+ global cooling
weekly SPX chart says P2 about to explode higher as inflation really gets going here. Chicago condos are selling for 10% more than last year with multiple bidders as cash pours out of the FHA. I think those betting on deflation are again several years too soon. The nice thing about EW is that you can just keep moving your count until hind site proves you right. I think Prechter is 200% short here and will be blown out in the next Bernanke fed risk asset rally through March. buy gold and stocks and houses and be flush with worthless dollars
ReplyDeleteNot a good day today.
ReplyDeleteThis is funny, anybody read Slope of Hope?
ReplyDelete'The last bear'
http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/daily-digest-december-1/32179#comment-60098
Bizarre news reporting just occurred.
ReplyDeleteThe weather channel deemed it important to announce that Snowshoe Mountain in West Virginia had to delay its opening last weekend (Nov 28) due to warmer then normal temperatures.
Hello, its West Virginia for crying out loud.
Is the weather channel now working for Climate Research Institute now that Phil Jones is temporarily stepping down??
If the FED can't print money, where is all this liquidity coming from. Everyone is flush with cash, people are waving it around and throwing it out to who ever wants it. Deflation, what deflation?
ReplyDeleteSome interesting junk mail I got. Could you refute the bulk of this please, when you have time. thank you
ReplyDeletehttp://mortgagesecretpower.com/Readings/1007/dSIXTEENkg.pdf
"Could you refute the bulk of this please, when you have time. thank you
ReplyDeletehttp://mortgagesecretpower.com/Readings/1007/dSIXTEENkg.pdf"
Sure.
What's to refute? Deflation has already won.