Saturday, December 19, 2009
Prez Returns From Global Warming Conference: Greeted by 10th Worst Blizzard of All Time
Mother Nature can be a cruel witch.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
skip to main |
skip to sidebar
Mother Nature can be a cruel witch.
Audited return since Oct 14, 2009
.......Jul 28 ....... .....Total ...........
..n/al......+7.76% Subscribe or Click for Information
Gold and Silver
US$ vs Euro and Yen
(all major currencies are strengthening in unison)
3-Month T-Bill and 10-Year Bond
Welcome to my financial blog
Open Market Forecasts:
Open Trend Forecasts:
CONTACT: fdralloveragain@yahoo.com
Mother Nature can be a cruel witch.
Portfolio Watch
.......Jul 28 ....... .....Total ...........
..n/al......+7.76%
PLEASE READ ME FIRST
Post Archives
-
▼
2009
(242)
-
▼
December
(24)
- Extreme Fed Interest Rates Continue to Crush Non-C...
- Inflation vs. Prices
- On the Verge of Massive Deflationary Implosion
- Merry Christmas To All!
- 21st Century: First Decade Recap
- Congress Pinches the Oxygen Hose
- S&P 500 EMERGENCY
- The Lost Art of Transparancy
- Prez Returns From Global Warming Conference: Greet...
- The CDOs that Disappeared
- TARP -- It's Mr. Short Term Memory! Who?
- Forget the Savior of Hyperinflation; Bernanke a Fa...
- Strong Dollar --> Low Prices
- Buy Low; Sell High
- Global Warming Fraud Reaches Frenzied Pitch
- Amateur Gold Traders Get it Backwards
- Trillion Dollar Fraud
- USD: Shape of things to Come
- What the Market REALLY Thinks About $ Weakness
- Drugs, Money, and the CIA in Afghanistan
- Golman Sachs Loses Law Suit for Covering Up Subpri...
- Sometimes Positions Cost money
- Another No-Show Hurricane Season Gives Way to Snow...
- Goldman Sachs Employees Get More Than They Bargain...
-
▼
December
(24)
Quote of the Day
"The more we do to you, the less you seem to believe we are doing it."
- Dr. Joseph Mengele, Chief Universal Health Care provider
Quote of the Day Archives
- Dr. Joseph Mengele, Chief Universal Health Care provider
Quote of the Day Archives
Most Recent Comments
Current National Debt
$12.3T Owed
$75T in Mandatory Entitlements
120M Taxpayers (and falling)
$728,000 = Your Share**
**Payoff (does not include interest)
4.63% (Avg) Fed Bank Finance Rate
$75T in Mandatory Entitlements
120M Taxpayers (and falling)
$728,000 = Your Share**
**Payoff (does not include interest)
4.63% (Avg) Fed Bank Finance Rate
About me
- fdralloveragain
- Understanding nature's cycles is the key to successful trading. Cycles of all scales interlock in a dance that is both artistically simple and scientifically complex. Today's predominant cycle will take us deep into an economic depression. It isn't that we as individuals cannot comprehend our fate, it is that we as a group cannot avoid it.
Search This Blog
Market Snapshot
Gold and Silver
US$ vs Euro and Yen
(all major currencies are strengthening in unison)
3-Month T-Bill and 10-Year Bond
Market Trends
Dow:
S&P:
NASDAQ:
Gold:
Oil:
3 Month Treasury:
S&P:
NASDAQ:
Gold:
Oil:
3 Month Treasury:
Welcome to my financial blog
WARNING: This blog contains views that are often unconventional. That's because "conventional wisdom" is designed to take your money
DISCLAIMER: This blog may make specific forecasts, nothing is guaranteed so trade at your own risk. Some content might offend organizations created for the sole purpose of stealing other people's money. If you are offended by the content of this blog, don't read it (and stop stealing other people's money)
Open Market Forecasts:
Issued May 2007 - Short real estate, home builders, bond insurers and leveraged financials
Current Target - Ongoing declines
Issued Oct 2007 - Conservative investors go 100% cash and Treasuries
Next target - Two years of physical cash in home; Ladder short to medium term US Treasuries with the rest; Minimize bank account balances, CDs, and non-treasury bonds; associate high paying bond yields with capital starvation
Issued Oct 2007 - Short Dow (14,100) and broad market indexes
Next Targets:
by 2012 - Dow 3,800
then - as high as Dow 6,000
by 2025 - Dow 800
Issued Oct 2007 - Short Automakers and Airlines
Next Target - More declines, many luxury makes go the way of Duesenberg
by 2020 - pain
Next Target - Gold $475, other PMs with proportionate or greater declines
By 2020 - Gold $225
Next Target - $25
by 2020 - $4
Open Trend Forecasts:
Relentless DEFLATION
Increasing US Dollar buying power as measured by falling real estate prices, stock prices, most asset prices, and falling treasury yields; Periods of excessively negative 3 month treasury yields
Continued transfer of taxpayer funds, high yield preferred stock, risky loan guaranties, and asset holdings to the Federal Reserve and connected bankers in the face of taxpayer clamor; result: increased strain on commercial and consumer credit accelerates deflation
Main Stream Media to continue promoting Federal Reserve and banker agenda: more debt, more debt, more debt
5,000+ bank failures
More bank consolidations intended to shift FDIC insurance obligations to common stockholder losses
FDIC bailout/restructuring that compromises insurance payouts
Massive "New Deal 2.0" in order to transfer maximum wealth from the poor (taxpayers) to the Federal Reserve, connected bankers and corporations, and to benefit politicians; result: same as the original New Deal, economic depression
Supreme Court Increased to 11 Justices by 2015, unless the conservative majority yields first
Higher mileage vehicles go cheap and dirty, not expensive and "Green"
Continuation of 2007+ global cooling
CONTACT: fdralloveragain@yahoo.com
Since the fed is blamed for leaving rates too low after the dot com bubble for the housing bubble, is it safe to say that the free market is to blame because they set market rates, not the FED?
ReplyDelete"Since the fed is blamed for leaving rates too low after the dot com bubble for the housing bubble, is it safe to say that the free market is to blame because they set market rates, not the FED?"
ReplyDeleteIf you want to make money in the market, you must to understand the private Fed corporations's for-profit inflation/deflation machine.
Amazingly, our Founding Fathers understood the king's bank scam perfectly. So well, they kicked the no good scoundrels back to England. Today, very few people understand how a king's bank steals their money.
The Fed absolutely does not determine interest rates, the free market is in total control. The Fed follows the 3-M treasury roughly tick-for-tick, there's never been a significant deviation since the private Fed corporation bought and seized our banking system in late 1913.
The Fed is the first to admit that. They say the free market sets interest rates; a rare moment of honesty for the hardened criminals who run the king's bank so they may rape our hardest working citizens.
Readers of this blog understand that if the Fed sets their interest rate a bit below the free-market determined rate for short term cash, they can inflate the cash supply, since, obviously, buying counterfeit Fed cash below the market rate makes for easy arbitrage that private banks can mark-up to resell at a profit.
That's the inflation scam. That era is over.
Today, it's Fed deflation time.
When the Fed sets their rate SKY HIGH relative to the free market rate, in this case a WHOPPING 0.25% over the market rate of 0.03% (a bank-crushing 800% higher than the whole sale-retail break even point) the Fed sucks the cash supply dry to create mega deflation, as we see today.
With this simple scam, the Fed crushes the middle class and poor, plunging their collateral prices held against inflated debt notes. Then the private Fed bank seizes their property and kicks them to the curb, just like Thomas Jefferson said they would if we ever let them break back into our country.
How right he was.
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property, until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs."
ReplyDelete- Thomas Jefferson
FDR
ReplyDeleteI did find myself with a brief iota of hope when Ben had a few more no votes than expected.
How do you think this will play out befor the senate, coming up ?
I hope the market is going down, while the debate is going on
FDR- you like bonds continuing to perform which would be great for Obama because he can continue to borrow and spend on larger and larger wellfare programs like government healthcare. What is the end game? It sounds like one can just get a high paying government job and live high on the hog piling into treasuries. The government can borrow and pay off the state debts as well, since they can borrow for nothing. Since no one has to worry about any debt, what is the point of this whole exercise in borrowing worthless paper to pay back debts made in worthless paper? The banks don't have to count losses, why will they start now? Why don't we just print a munch of bills and send them to China, debt gone. I know the central bankers won't like this but we can just hang em' at high noon if we have to. I guess what I am getting at is what is the point of all this and what is the end game?
ReplyDelete"How do you think this will play out befor the senate, coming up ?"
ReplyDeleteIt's just a side show. The banks run our government.
"The banks don't have to count losses, why will they start now?"
ReplyDeleteIt would be neat if the circular logic went round and round forever, but it doesn't.
The banks don't have to count losses, ever, that's true of anyone that owes money to someone who never shows up to claim it.
Problem is, the government is borrowing money at 0% for a reason: bank runs.
Banks book their losses when they get the mega margin call from their depositors. That is in progress; proven by 0% Treasury yields.
What do you mean when you speak of the Fed failing during the Great Depression and continuing in name only? Given the current national debt figures posted to the right, how do you anticipate that debt being repaid? Do you envision any action similar to the Gold Act of 1934, even if applicable to something other than gold?
ReplyDeleteGreat blog!
FDR
ReplyDeleteMy understanding is that the dollar is up over 4% the last 4 weeks, very good for just parking your cash.
What is your guesstimate for that trend in 2010?
"What do you mean when you speak of the Fed failing during the Great Depression and continuing in name only? Given the current national debt figures posted to the right, how do you anticipate that debt being repaid? Do you envision any action similar to the Gold Act of 1934, even if applicable to something other than gold?
ReplyDeleteGreat blog!"
The Fed bankrupted themselves during the Great Depression and had to resort to instructing FDR to loot Americans, house-to-house at gunpoint via the Gold Confiscation Act. It was probably the lowest point in our nation's storied history.
I don't anticipate the national debt ever being repaid.
I don't anticipate another gold confiscation because (1) we possess zero gold as a nation, unlike 1934, when every household had a jar of gold and silver bullion.
And (2) the Fed is now a known criminal organization--it's not in the news they buy--but American are on to the scam and most want the Fed abolished. It's a sea change.
But you are right, they are financially confiscating IRAs and 401Ks right now. What little is left.
"My understanding is that the dollar is up over 4% the last 4 weeks, very good for just parking your cash. What is your guesstimate for that trend in 2010?"
ReplyDeletehttp://fdralloveragain.blogspot.com/2009/12/usd-shape-of-things-to-come.html
+ Do a blog search on "cashzilla"
How are they confiscating 401Ks and IRAs? They are making new highs. Deflation is causing equities to be priced higher than ever in some cases. Of course the indexes are down and those that hold index funds are getting hurt, but those that hold stocks are doing better than ever. I was able to average down through March and am making a killing. I don't have any treasuries and most of my money at GS, they have been spot on. Should I cash out? Where would i get a better return than the stock market? I am amazed at the returns, it seems upside down with all the reality out their. I have done best by doing the opposite of what people think you should do and thus retired early. Right now, everyone thinks you should sell stocks because we are in deflation. I have not seen traders this bearish in a long time, so i don't want to join them, that would be following the masses. At some point though it gets ridiculous to make 100's of a percent return on stocks in 6 months and not get out. The stronger the dollars the stronger the equities, the weaker the dollar the stronger the profits. I like the GLD short though, that is all I have short and it is working great. I do remember the dot com bubble though, and I know this can end very fast. I suspect new highs in January, my guy at GS is looking for 11500 in January as the funds try to get a good squeeze in 2010 at the front end to get some selling off and some upside target to work later in the year if things get dicey. I know you thought 9500 was the top, where do you think the top is now? I am looking for a good point to switch short, but don't want to miss another 20% of upside gain in a month.
ReplyDelete"How are they confiscating 401Ks and IRAs?"
ReplyDeleteThe government has agreed to pin them, while the corporatocracy steals.
Most IRAs and 401Ks are a lot riskier than the Dow 30, but using the Oct 2007 Dow 30 as a gauge, they'd be down about 80% from 2007 highs.
FDR- with the FED directly buying equities to basically send people cash in the mail< how is this increase in money supply deflationary. A lot of people look at old metrics to track money supply but the FED taking common equities as collateral is the same as mailing people stack of hundred dollar bills. It is working well thus far as the American people become become wealthier and wealthier on paper. The marking up of the 401ks and IRAs has helped people I know pay off there entire mortgage. Maybe they will lose their job but the government has paid off there mortgage in full, and they have almost no bills anymore. I suppose that they can keep mailing us money until inflation gets out of control. How is this going to drive down prices eventually? If I were a retailer I would be raising prices as demand is growing stronger than anyone would think. The demand is stronger because the FED is mailing us money, or at least those in the markets, which is almost everyone these days due to the structure of retirement accounts. The ones really suffering are those that have no interest in the markets, but those were the ones that weren't consuming things other than groceries and gas anyway
ReplyDeleteIf you own equities it has arrived. 1000 shares of GOOG at 300 is now worth $600,000. As long as they still place the profit in U.S. dollars in the account upon settlement, the government has sent you $300,000. You just have to know their play book to get the money. Of course you can't literally wait for a check in the mail but it is the same thing for those who know hoe to play the game
ReplyDelete"FDR- with the FED directly buying equities to basically send people cash in the mail"
ReplyDeleteLet me know when my check will arrive in the mail.
The Fed doesn't control the cash supply, they only control the wholesale rate of cash to commercial banks who then mark it up to resell into the currency supply. With the Fed crushing commercial banks with a rate 800% above the market rate for short term cash, expect M3 to continue its free fall.
The Fed does lend a relatively small amount (small compared to aggregate leveraged bank lending of around $500T) to our gov directly to spend as banker stimulus, but what they forget to mention is they demand 2.5X the amount back in the form of tax revenue, on the backs of the 77% who are still employed.
"If you own equities it has arrived. 1000 shares of GOOG at 300 is now worth $600,000"
ReplyDeleteProblem is, Goog is down 20%.
FDR wrote: "I don't anticipate the national debt ever being repaid."
ReplyDeleteHmm...
Do you anticipate the Fed ever stopping its loans to the U.S. government?
If so, then why do you advise people to park their cash in treasuries? If the national debt is never going to be repaid and the Fed stops loaning money to the U.S. government, then most certainly at that point (and quite possibly well before then) the government will be unwilling for sure, and probably unable, to pay back any treasuries that are outstanding.
Doesn't that imply that the risk of storing your money in treasuries is greater than it is for storing it in financially sound banks such as credit unions (as few of those as there may be)?
FDR, Last week Obama met with the bankers and chided them again (at least in front of the press) and told them to essentially loosen their standards and make more loans available to the communities. Nevermind the fact that these conditions played a large roll in creating the housing crisis. But why didn't the bankers take an opportunity to educate the public about how they were essentially hijacked by liberal agenda of offering loans to anyone that wanted one? My opinion is that they need to play suck up because they'll need more bailouts in the future. What can you say about this situation? You mentioned however that bankers run the show, and they're in control. I'm having a hard time reconciling these two competing powers. Fed vs. Gov.
ReplyDelete"Last week Obama met with the bankers and chided them again (at least in front of the press) and told them to essentially loosen their standards and make more loans available to the communities."
ReplyDeleteHilarious. That's like ordering Walmart to sell more stuff because they have inventory stacked to the ceiling. Like they don't wish they could sell stuff...
Is anyone in the US government a capitalist?
Or do they all think markets are 100% engineered by the whim and will of the king and his jesters? It's a disgusting new level of stupidity.
I know our government-run school systems suck, I attended some of them. And I know from living in similarly socialist Europe that theirs are even worse. But seriously, you have to have a IQ below 57 to think the government can sufficiently control every aspect of global capitalism, by decree.
Ordering banks to do more business? I don't even know what to say to that? How do you react to someone who honestly thinks banks don't want to offer more loans at interest?