Friday, December 25, 2009
Merry Christmas To All!
Santa has brought the bears ascending diagonals, punctuating all degrees including the daily:
Merry Christmas everyone, may God smile on our children.
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WARNING: This blog contains views that are often unconventional. That's because "conventional wisdom" is designed to take your money
DISCLAIMER: This blog may make specific forecasts, nothing is guaranteed so trade at your own risk. Some content might offend organizations created for the sole purpose of stealing other people's money. If you are offended by the content of this blog, don't read it (and stop stealing other people's money)
Issued May 2007 - Short real estate, home builders, bond insurers and leveraged financials
Current Target - Ongoing declines
Issued Oct 2007 - Conservative investors go 100% cash and Treasuries
Next target - Two years of physical cash in home; Ladder short to medium term US Treasuries with the rest; Minimize bank account balances, CDs, and non-treasury bonds; associate high paying bond yields with capital starvation
Issued Oct 2007 - Short Dow (14,100) and broad market indexes
Next Targets:
by 2012 - Dow 3,800
then - as high as Dow 6,000
by 2025 - Dow 800
Issued Oct 2007 - Short Automakers and Airlines
Next Target - More declines, many luxury makes go the way of Duesenberg
by 2020 - pain
Next Target - Gold $475, other PMs with proportionate or greater declines
By 2020 - Gold $225
Next Target - $25
by 2020 - $4
Relentless DEFLATION
Increasing US Dollar buying power as measured by falling real estate prices, stock prices, most asset prices, and falling treasury yields; Periods of excessively negative 3 month treasury yields
Continued transfer of taxpayer funds, high yield preferred stock, risky loan guaranties, and asset holdings to the Federal Reserve and connected bankers in the face of taxpayer clamor; result: increased strain on commercial and consumer credit accelerates deflation
Main Stream Media to continue promoting Federal Reserve and banker agenda: more debt, more debt, more debt
5,000+ bank failures
More bank consolidations intended to shift FDIC insurance obligations to common stockholder losses
FDIC bailout/restructuring that compromises insurance payouts
Massive "New Deal 2.0" in order to transfer maximum wealth from the poor (taxpayers) to the Federal Reserve, connected bankers and corporations, and to benefit politicians; result: same as the original New Deal, economic depression
Supreme Court Increased to 11 Justices by 2015, unless the conservative majority yields first
Higher mileage vehicles go cheap and dirty, not expensive and "Green"
Continuation of 2007+ global cooling
Merry christmas to you FDR and everyone in the forum :) Thanks also for all the great insight/lessons. I really appreciate the time you invest to read and answer our questions.
ReplyDeletechocolateMan
Merry Christmas FDR,
ReplyDeleteLet's hope stocks can deflate a little from here. I've seen quite a few ascending diagonals explode the wrong way (up) since March.
Merry Christmas FDR!!!!
ReplyDeleteViks
Luv the site; Quick question; If deflation is occuring, why is CPI going up as the $US DOLLAR NOW is starting to go up also?
ReplyDeletethx
neo
Happy Holidays FDR! Just starting reading, " The Forgotten Man"
ReplyDeleteFDR- thinking of covering my TLT short and AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, CREE longs this week and reversing the trades. I still like the GLD short so I am thinking of riding that one out. There are almost no short sellers left in the market so I think now is the time to get short as I have punished them enough for one year. I assume that everyone will try to pile on the long side now as they have watched the market rally and are sick of being left out. That is usually the sign to fade them. I think the bond auctions will continue to go poorly as the 10 year yield climbs back over 5% in 2010, but I think it will be a turbulent trade as people fight for safety at the same time, so being outright short may have run its course. I want to go short via the options market to limit the pain of the short side and get as much leverage as possible if we get a quick selloff in the market. Retail sales are much better than expected but assume that will taper off again in the new year. Just not sure if the run through first quarter earnings, which will beat very easily, is priced in or if the market will do one last surge to the upside. I like 12000 on the DOW in the first quarter or bust, but I think you have to be short into further upside to catch a good price on the decline. Do you think the market can get to 12k in the next couple of months?
ReplyDeleteHope you had a Merry Christmas FDR
ReplyDeletethanks for the blog site
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year !
ReplyDeleteLove what you do !