October 15, 2009:
Update: Subtract Atlanta.
October 11, 2009:
When you hear "10% unemployment" that's just ongoing government claims.
The majority of the unemployed do not, or can no longer make a claim. Shadowstats.com reports our total unemployed at 23% (chart does not include the latest BLS release):
During the Great Depression, they counted total unemployed. That number peaked at 24% in 1932.
I get the feeling most people don't understand the un-fixable devastation that has already wrecked the United States' economy, particularly our metropolitan areas. The following table shows the population of America's 100 largest cities:
- 23% unemployment is the same as the cumulative population of the dark red cities. That is, people on the unemployment dole, or who have given up looking for a job.
- The bright red city of Milwaukee (#23) is the number of unemployed that we added last month (new goverment paychecks)
- The population of Indianapolis (#14) is how many jobs we lost the month prior.
- San Fransisco (#12) is equal to the worst month in 2009.
- Last month, the BLS said they understated all of those numbers by 875,000, about the population of Detroit (#11).
- The blue cities represent the current total number of unemployed workers, counting from the top down.
Rank | City | Population |
| 1 |
| 8,363,710 |
| 2 |
| 3,833,995 |
| 3 |
| 2,853,114 |
| 4 | | 2,242,193 |
| 5 | | 1,567,924 |
| 6 | | 1,447,395 |
| 7 | | 1,351,305 |
| 8 | | 1,279,910 |
| 9 | | 1,279,329 |
| 10 | | 948,279 |
| 11 |
| 912,062 |
| 12 |
| 808,976 |
| 13 | | 807,815 |
| 14 |
| 798,382 |
| 15 | | 757,688 |
| 16 | | 754,885 |
| 17 | | 703,073 |
| 18 | | 687,456 |
| 19 | | 669,651 |
| 20 | | 636,919 |
| 21 | | 613,190 |
| 22 | | 609,023 |
| 23 |
| 604,477 |
| 24 | | 598,707 |
| 25 | | 598,541 |
| 26 | | 596,462 |
| 27 | | 591,833 |
| 28 | | 558,383 |
| 29 | | 557,706 |
| 30 | | 557,224 |
| 31 | | 551,789 |
| 32 | | 541,811 |
| 33 | | 537,958 |
| 34 | | 521,999 |
| 35 | | 476,050 |
| 36 | | 463,794 |
| 37 | | 463,789 |
| 38 | | 463,552 |
| 39 | | 451,572 |
| 40 | | 438,646 |
| 41 | | 433,748 |
| 42 | | 433,746 |
| 43 | | 413,201 |
| 44 | | 404,155 |
| 45 | | 392,552 |
| 46 | | 385,635 |
| 47 | | 382,605 |
| 48 | | 380,307 |
| 49 | | 374,676 |
| 50 | | 374,417 |
| 51 | | 366,046 |
| 52 | | 354,361 |
| 53 | | 340,882 |
| 54 | | 339,130 |
| 55 | | 335,288 |
| 56 | | 333,336 |
| 57 | | 321,078 |
| 58 | | 319,057 |
| 59 | | 311,853 |
| 60 | | 310,037 |
| 61 | | 295,357 |
| 62 | | 293,201 |
| 63 | | 287,037 |
| 64 | | 286,462 |
| 65 | | 282,114 |
| 66 | | 279,590 |
| 67 | | 279,243 |
| 68 | | 278,980 |
| 69 | | 270,919 |
| 70 | | 267,480 |
| 71 | | 252,064 |
| 72 | | 251,624 |
| 73 | | 251,591 |
| 74 | | 251,522 |
| 75 | | 250,642 |
| 76 | | 247,140 |
| 77 | | 245,314 |
| 78 | | 241,114 |
| 79 | | 235,371 |
| 80 | | 234,220 |
| 81 | | 231,916 |
| 82 | | 230,519 |
| 83 | | 228,798 |
| 84 | | 223,689 |
| 85 | | 223,284 |
| 86 | | 221,659 |
| 87 | | 220,483 |
| 88 | | 220,111 |
| 89 | | 219,318 |
| 90 | | 218,577 |
| 91 | | 217,600 |
| 92 | | 217,253 |
| 93 | | 217,016 |
| 94 | Gilbert | 216,449 |
| 95 | | 210,542 |
| 96 | | 209,969 |
| 97 | | 207,510 |
| 98 | | 207,500 |
| 99 | | 206,886 |
| 100 | | 205,314 |
Wow. Incredibly sobering when put into perspective. Question for FDR and any others: is there any other place in the world that you would consider "safe" or "safer" when things REALLY go south in the US?
ReplyDeleteFDR,
ReplyDeleteGreat piece on how much worse it is than
the "cover up" allows us know.
So do you believe that Dow 14,000 was the
end of a Grand Supercyle and will retrace
far more than most can imagine?
Agree, "main street" is a horrible mess, but Wall Street owns our government, so nothing really matters anymore.
ReplyDelete"any other place in the world that you would consider "safe" or "safer" when things REALLY go south in the US?"
ReplyDeleteI am optimistic that the social malaise in the US might actually improve as the (economic) floor gives way.
Maybe people will stop drinking the socialist Kool-aid and start having family discussions around a barren dinner table?
On the economic front, hard as it is to believe, the The UK and EU are in far worse shape than we. They have a much larger housing bubble and only use toxic ARM financing.
Again, counter intuitive, but as low risk interest rates zero-out, high risk interest rates (like those EU and UK mortgages) will rise to escape velocity. Europe is even more highly socialized than the USA's ever crystallizing socialism, and that makes continuing payment on their junk mortgage debt even riskier. One word: screwed.
There must be tropical island somewhere with little to no exposure?
Then again, maybe it's a good time to reflect on Jim Grant's famous snipe at Bernanke's bouncing bobblehead idea that subprime was "contained."
Great idea for Quote of the Day ---------->
Thanks for reminding me.
FDR: You claim its very bad out there. Lets say you had to come to Tulsa, oklahoma(middle america) today and had spent the day with me today.
ReplyDeleteFirst, the good man you are you would have went to church with me. You would have noticed that the church still has about the same amount of people as it did several years ago. However when they gave you the church bulletin you would have noticed that the contribution for the year is down by about 15 to 20 percent. However while that is down that certainly isnt a crisis.( Lot of old folks go to our chucrh, talk more about that in a minute.
Next, since you went to church with me I would have taken you to the same place I ate at today, The delta cafe. You would have noticed that the place was JAM packed.(A lot of older folks, once agian talk about that in a min) However when the manager came by and we asked how business is overall she would say down about 20-30 percent, they are having to watch every penny but still making money and havent had major layoffs. (The high price restraunt across the street did close though)
When we left the restraunt you would have noticed quite a bit of traffic for Sunday. In other words in a depression you would think people wouldnt be driving around on a sunday afternoon.
Next it just so happens that the State Fair was in Town this week. You would have noticed a LOT of cars, but im sure it is way down in attendance from last year never the less some people still have money to blow.
Ok, why did I say all this? I see a Recession out there for sure but i dont see a Depression. It kind of reminds me of the saying , "Its a recession if you lose your Job and its a depression if i lose my Job"
So my first question is , We saw evidence of a 'recession' today but Why didnt we see a Depression today?
Next, and this may help in part answer the first question but as far as the Older americans that go out to eat and to church, if you think about it, there social security or medical benifts have NOT been cut, Therefore they are still out there spending money at restraunts, they are driving around and they are going to church.
So my next question is as long as the 65 and over group keep getting there SS checks and pensions wont that help businesses and churches from going under?(and the economy in general)
When we will me and you be able to go for a Sunday drive and be able to 'see' , without a doubt, a Depression?
Thanks, Magnumpi28
Don't you think it is strange how there are so few people that can see/feel what will happen? Any idea as to why?
ReplyDeleteIn retrospective EW's are clear but when you are looking at the present you have to use your "instinct"... can it be the just as herds have a leader we also follow that kind of formation and that is how we all become aware of what will happen(or what is happening)?
"When we will me and you be able to go for a Sunday drive and be able to 'see' , without a doubt, a Depression?"
ReplyDeleteGreat observations. I would point out a couple of things:
- One would expect church attendance to go up when unemployment is high.
- Just like price without volume information is indeterminate, so is volume without price. If a place is packed on low price, that's a sign things are bad.
- Social Security/Medicare spending is a huge drag on a nation with no income. We cannot pick ourselves up and fly away.
Your words "as long as" SS checks keep coming is an interesting choice of words. Imagine what the day looks like when these safety nets finally break. When do they break?
We have a $4T in spending up from $3T last year, and we (supposedly) still have about $2T in income left from $3T a year ago.
How about in 2 years when we have a $6T spending and $1T income? How about in 10 years when its $20T out and $0.5T in? Will the monthly SS checks keep flowing when each check is enough to buy a Maserati?
It's almost like our govt needs to test the axiom that a 100% income tax rate produces $0 revenue, just to make sure it is true.
Oh, so what day will it be that the D word seems appropriate?
ReplyDeleteWell the full inflationary cycle we can clearly identify lasted about 235 years, so we expect the down slope after the fifth wave to last roughly two thirds of that. Within that correction phase, two large cycle down waves broken by one up waves. Each of those, perhaps, 50 years long.
Don't know if we'll be able to pin a day on it. But the slow down trend should, at some point, start to seem really really old.
That is why I say "sell and hold." The money to be made is most reliable in the macro, not necessarily the micro. Imagine someone saying "buy and hold" in 1932.
well, my short bets may come to fruition in several years. this morning looks like another drubbing however. gold, oil, stocks up. maybe the inflationists are right.
ReplyDeleteKeep up the GREAT work FDR. With a Fed/Treasury going all out to manipulate markets, there not a chance anyone can accurately predict where markets are heading.
ReplyDeletewell, another down day for the US dollar. Zimbabwe here we come.
ReplyDeleteNo use calling a top on this thing. I don't think EW accounts for a market not being a "free" market.
ReplyDelete"No use calling a top on this thing. I don't think EW accounts for a market not being a "free" market."
ReplyDeleteIt think it excels most at calling tops in manipulated markets.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/why-did-us-sdr-holdings-increase-five-fold-last-week-august
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/why-did-us-sdr-holdings-increase-five-fold-last-week-august
ReplyDeleteThat's known as "moving to cash." A great move, obviously they know something.
I personally think they want to drive the $ down so they can raise interest rates(an excuse to save the $) All of this plays into the grand strategy of shorting. Once they raise interest rates the $ will strengthen. They will advertise their doing as "containing inflation"
ReplyDeleteAny comments about the nys manufacturing index jumping to 34??? A five year high.
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely crazy...
The news got me thinking about inflation. Some say that soon we will be paying $5 for a loaf of bread. Others say that a house that now costs $200k will cost $600k in the next few years. They say inflation will make our wages go up, in fact everything will go up. Then I started thinking the houses will go up in price? This sounds like Deja vu? Why would the houses go up in price if this is what happened during "the good times"? I started to see that if this mega inflation starts happening then people would be able to borrow against their house again and use it as an ATM as they did before. It became clear to me that the inflation scenario would in some way "benefit the people" so why would it happen again? It doesn't make sense that during the good times we saw inflation and now during the bad times we will see inflation again! They want us to believe that but it is simply not possible.
ReplyDeleteDon't get me wrong deflation will not be pretty but that is really what we are seeing now. My friends that have been laid off and have been lucky to find a job are now working for about 40% less of what they use to make. It is true they still pay $2 for a loaf of bread and $3 for a gallon of gas etc This deflation is not happening all at once, but it is certainly bringing overall prices down.
Correct. Inflation absolves all debts and there ain't no way its happening in our lifetimes.
ReplyDeleteNot while the private Fed has America checkmated.
FDR: if inflation absolves all debts and is an indicator of "happy times" in the economy, then why isn't the economy of Zimbabwe the "strongest" in the world, with an inflation rate orders of magnitude larger than anyone else's?
ReplyDeleteFDR:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2009-10-13-colo-min-wage_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip
Colorado 1st state to cut minimum wage as living costs fall
I've been waiting for a discussion of how federal minimum wages would pressure unemployment in a deflationary environment.
http://pragcap.com/the-bubble-is-back
ReplyDeleteI am sure seniors are not happy about no cola adjustment for 2010. Psychological effect is bigger than the zero change itself.
ReplyDeleteFDR, please explain your update: Subtract Atlanta. I live in Atlanta and the employment rate at 10.1% is not too good.
ReplyDeleteHi FDR,
ReplyDeleteYour insights are very informative. Looks like the private FED corps wants to ravage Australia too. The first rate hike was completed few weeks ago. Do u have any take on it.
Thanks
I have a question about price sans volume = wrong price.
ReplyDeleteI believe there is an illusion to this statement.
Over the last 6 months the market has increased, but volume has declined over this period. This sends a false signal in the price sans volume = wrong price statement
This is because it does not take time and historical averages into account. The stock market should be up because over the last 6 months the volume has been much higher than multiyear averages.
I would only be alarmed if volume drops way below multi-year historical average.
Does waning volume, back to normal amounts, suggest the wrong price?
Hyperinflation is here!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thereadystore.com/on-sale/biweekly-promotion?utm_source=rne_20091014&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=RNE_Harvest_Sale&utm_content=main_graphic
"Does waning volume, back to normal amounts, suggest the wrong price?"
ReplyDeleteThe rule is that volume always declines during counter trend price movement. Though it probably yields some useful information, you really can't rally compare volume to multi-year averages in this capacity, because the most recent price is what needs the previous number of transactions to support it.