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It's not too late to short the beast:
WARNING: This blog contains views that are often unconventional. That's because "conventional wisdom" is designed to take your money
DISCLAIMER: This blog may make specific forecasts, nothing is guaranteed so trade at your own risk. Some content might offend organizations created for the sole purpose of stealing other people's money. If you are offended by the content of this blog, don't read it (and stop stealing other people's money)
Issued May 2007 - Short real estate, home builders, bond insurers and leveraged financials
Current Target - Ongoing declines
Issued Oct 2007 - Conservative investors go 100% cash and Treasuries
Next target - Two years of physical cash in home; Ladder short to medium term US Treasuries with the rest; Minimize bank account balances, CDs, and non-treasury bonds; associate high paying bond yields with capital starvation
Issued Oct 2007 - Short Dow (14,100) and broad market indexes
Next Targets:
by 2012 - Dow 3,800
then - as high as Dow 6,000
by 2025 - Dow 800
Issued Oct 2007 - Short Automakers and Airlines
Next Target - More declines, many luxury makes go the way of Duesenberg
by 2020 - pain
Next Target - Gold $475, other PMs with proportionate or greater declines
By 2020 - Gold $225
Next Target - $25
by 2020 - $4
Relentless DEFLATION
Increasing US Dollar buying power as measured by falling real estate prices, stock prices, most asset prices, and falling treasury yields; Periods of excessively negative 3 month treasury yields
Continued transfer of taxpayer funds, high yield preferred stock, risky loan guaranties, and asset holdings to the Federal Reserve and connected bankers in the face of taxpayer clamor; result: increased strain on commercial and consumer credit accelerates deflation
Main Stream Media to continue promoting Federal Reserve and banker agenda: more debt, more debt, more debt
5,000+ bank failures
More bank consolidations intended to shift FDIC insurance obligations to common stockholder losses
FDIC bailout/restructuring that compromises insurance payouts
Massive "New Deal 2.0" in order to transfer maximum wealth from the poor (taxpayers) to the Federal Reserve, connected bankers and corporations, and to benefit politicians; result: same as the original New Deal, economic depression
Supreme Court Increased to 11 Justices by 2015, unless the conservative majority yields first
Higher mileage vehicles go cheap and dirty, not expensive and "Green"
Continuation of 2007+ global cooling
Wow, what a picture. Picture speaks a thousand words. You way of expressing is brilliant.
ReplyDeleteShort GLD?
ReplyDelete"Short GLD?"
ReplyDeleteObviously from my flashing trading alert (you need Firefox to see the flashing ones) I think shorting any index tied to gold would be smart.
GLD is HSBC and the BNY's paper proxy for physical gold, paper gold is one of the reasons for the "metals" W5 run up. The fund administrators hold one of the largest gold short positions in the world today.
Obviously a timely picture it is.
ReplyDeleteThank you FDRAOA.
I hear your words, but lack the courage to sell my bullion. Would it be insane to keep my metal and short GLD?
ReplyDeleteWhat happened to your archives?
Regards,
I recommend holding some bullion, as always. But don't expect to make money on an insurance policy, for insurance you must pay or you simply aren't insured.
ReplyDeleteNo it isn't insane to short paper prices, just about any paper will do, including GLD.
the spreads on GLD puts kind of suck, plus their is low open interest deep ITM. FDR, do you short gold on COMEX?
ReplyDeleteI agree with you in the short term, fdr, and enjoy your posts. However, long-term, gold will reach Alf's, Sinclair's, and Armstrong's figures. It's not necessarily about deflation or inflation, but confidence, and that's difficult to get one's head around. I'm glad you didn't advise selling one's bullion--insurance it is.
ReplyDeleteThanks for your work,
A dude in Frankfurt
FDR, could address this?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/here-why-fed-needs-cut-dollar-half-over-next-14-years
"The fund administrators hold one of the largest gold short positions in the world today."
ReplyDeleteFDR, how did you find this out?
Thanks!
FDR, do you have a preference as to how much physical gold to have as compared to cash? 50/50?
ReplyDeleteThanks, Pal.
It looks like the bull got me today, but thanks to the photo I reminded who still has the sword in their back.
ReplyDelete