Tuesday, April 7, 2009
TRADING ALERT
Based on the excellent risk:reward and my need to be greedy and focused, my only position at this point is short silver & gold.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
WARNING: This blog contains views that are often unconventional. That's because "conventional wisdom" is designed to take your money
DISCLAIMER: This blog may make specific forecasts, nothing is guaranteed so trade at your own risk. Some content might offend organizations created for the sole purpose of stealing other people's money. If you are offended by the content of this blog, don't read it (and stop stealing other people's money)
Issued May 2007 - Short real estate, home builders, bond insurers and leveraged financials
Current Target - Ongoing declines
Issued Oct 2007 - Conservative investors go 100% cash and Treasuries
Next target - Two years of physical cash in home; Ladder short to medium term US Treasuries with the rest; Minimize bank account balances, CDs, and non-treasury bonds; associate high paying bond yields with capital starvation
Issued Oct 2007 - Short Dow (14,100) and broad market indexes
Next Targets:
by 2012 - Dow 3,800
then - as high as Dow 6,000
by 2025 - Dow 800
Issued Oct 2007 - Short Automakers and Airlines
Next Target - More declines, many luxury makes go the way of Duesenberg
by 2020 - pain
Next Target - Gold $475, other PMs with proportionate or greater declines
By 2020 - Gold $225
Next Target - $25
by 2020 - $4
Relentless DEFLATION
Increasing US Dollar buying power as measured by falling real estate prices, stock prices, most asset prices, and falling treasury yields; Periods of excessively negative 3 month treasury yields
Continued transfer of taxpayer funds, high yield preferred stock, risky loan guaranties, and asset holdings to the Federal Reserve and connected bankers in the face of taxpayer clamor; result: increased strain on commercial and consumer credit accelerates deflation
Main Stream Media to continue promoting Federal Reserve and banker agenda: more debt, more debt, more debt
5,000+ bank failures
More bank consolidations intended to shift FDIC insurance obligations to common stockholder losses
FDIC bailout/restructuring that compromises insurance payouts
Massive "New Deal 2.0" in order to transfer maximum wealth from the poor (taxpayers) to the Federal Reserve, connected bankers and corporations, and to benefit politicians; result: same as the original New Deal, economic depression
Supreme Court Increased to 11 Justices by 2015, unless the conservative majority yields first
Higher mileage vehicles go cheap and dirty, not expensive and "Green"
Continuation of 2007+ global cooling
I take it that being short stocks is too risky at this point.
ReplyDeleteBeing short stocks is a no brainer if you are looking long term, I expect the stock market to decline before a minor bounce, assuming there is any bounce. We have the government doing everything they can to demolish stock prices, and people are mostly gitty bullish, its a terribly grim picture over time. Personally, it shocks me that people even think about staying long in this market, but I am grateful they pay me.
ReplyDeleteAll that said, short silver/gold has the potential to halve in a fairly short time period. Gold is still trading near record high levels and silver has the industrial angle going south. I see a near term drop, in percentage terms, that I can't match anywhere else.
Where is the serious money going?
ReplyDeleteI'm a buyer of gold/silver
ReplyDeleteIn response anonymous:
ReplyDeleteThank you. It is you who will create my profits. I am grateful.