The official unemployment rate surged to 16.2% including "discouraged" workers who have given up looking for work.
A rise of 74% YOY.
January's numbers were revised up (worse) an additional 24%, February's rate was also revised marginally higher.
We now have an end-February UE rate of 21% (certain to be revised higher) using the pre-Clinton method of calculation, only 3% off of the Great Depression's all time high which we are projected to eclipse in Q3 or Q4 2009.
Friday, April 3, 2009
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If we are getting close to unemployeement rate of the Great Depression, would that mean market has already bottomed out and now is the time to buy stocks??
ReplyDelete"If we are getting close to unemployeement rate of the Great Depression, would that mean market has already bottomed out and now is the time to buy stocks??"
ReplyDeleteOnly if you don't mind riding stocks down another 90%.
FDR,
ReplyDeleteWhat happens when doller crashes. It appears to me that the doller will crash, not sure when though. But in the next 10 yrs it may happen. When that happens whats your take on the stock market. Will it go up or down.
I am thinking it may go up, but the value may be same.
This is just preceived unemployment rate. Actual unemployment rate is far less.
ReplyDeleteUnemployment numbers are never reliable anyways.
Dear Anon@ 7:25pm 3 April
ReplyDeleteSure, they are always based on a statistical sample of a select group of people that is 'randomly selected' by the polling agency, whether that be the gov't or someone else.
Nevertheless, it is in the interest of the .gov and nearly everyone else to under-report with the hope of stimulating a 'consumer-based' recovery. So I would disagree with your statement that 'actual unemployment rate is far less' without offering me a reason.
I would offer you this data in defense of my proposition that the number of recent memory are always revised downward at a later date (from Calculated Risk):
http://tinyurl.com/calc-risk-revised-data-march-0
Regards,
Ben