Update.
While my Dow short is still oscillating at its upper bound, the entry point, I decided to hold it as the euphoria level is high in my opinion. If we get a sharp upward move, I'll sell it at a few percent loss, but the most likely move remains down. If we climb from here, a long position could pay off, but cash has a much better risk:reward than getting caught long in a shaky market trading at it's all time high. The Dow's current P/E remains unpublished (the published sales pitch simply ignores companies running enormous losses), but last time it was honestly calculated it was well over 100 and since then it has climbed. Short stocks remains an ancillary position compared to short silver and gold, but will become the primary position if we climb in cash. Stocks: Short term (1 month) forecast - lower. Medium term (months) forecast - mildly higher. Long term forecast - disastrously lower.
Short silver and gold remains primary. PMs: Short, medium, long term - substantially lower.
In the largest sense, the (stock-commodity) see saw teeters as the deflationary fulcrum drops like an anvil. Sell and hold.
Friday, April 3, 2009
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FDR what do you opine on the G20 summit outcome? Dont you think that the 1.1Trillion$ committed at the G20 summit is inflationary?
ReplyDeleteThe US government has thrown $12 trillion at the problems over the last year, instead of letting the bankers/bondholders/speculators take the losses. The long-term projection of extremely low stock market/precious metals would imply a high value of the US$. With these trillions be thrown around like nickels, it is hard to believe that the US$ will be strong.
ReplyDeleteFDR,
ReplyDeleteCare to opine on this link:
http://mises.org/story/3390
"The US government has thrown $12 trillion at the problems over the last year, instead of letting the bankers/bondholders/speculators take the losses. The long-term projection of extremely low stock market/precious metals would imply a high value of the US$. With these trillions be thrown around like nickels, it is hard to believe that the US$ will be strong."
ReplyDeleteOnly if you believe government debt (which is deflationary by itself) is a bigger inflationary influence than all the commercial banks in the world creating currency with 40:1 leverage.