Monday, January 19, 2009
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Audited return since Oct 14, 2009
.......Jul 28 ....... .....Total ...........
..n/al......+7.76% Subscribe or Click for Information
Gold and Silver
US$ vs Euro and Yen
(all major currencies are strengthening in unison)
3-Month T-Bill and 10-Year Bond
Welcome to my financial blog
Open Market Forecasts:
Open Trend Forecasts:
CONTACT: fdralloveragain@yahoo.com
Portfolio Watch
.......Jul 28 ....... .....Total ...........
..n/al......+7.76%
PLEASE READ ME FIRST
Post Archives
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2009
(242)
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January
(31)
- TARP = FDIC Default
- Golden Opportunity in Depression
- Statistical Flaws and Other Government Negligence
- The Next Deal
- Federal Reserve Fails Test
- Bailouts Will Never End
- Obama Duped, Already?
- Four Lies a Minute
- The New Millionaire Lifestyle
- Wilshire 5000 by Congress
- Precious Metals Bubble
- An Elliott Thumbnail
- The Almighty Dead Dollar
- TARP II
- The Answer is Simple, Volume
- Follow the Money (Part 3)
- Follow the Money (Part 2)
- Follow the Money (Part 1)
- TRADING ALERT - Treasuries Again
- Two Debts Never Go Away
- Predators to the Rescue!
- Can the Fed Print Currency to Counter Deflation?
- TRADING ALERT - Treasury Footprints in the Sand
- Gold - Money or Currency?
- What if Dollars Were Replaced by Strawberries?
- The Currency Scam
- What is Money?
- Why Share?
- A Place for Conversations
- Quote of the Day Archives
- Welcome to my financial blog
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January
(31)
Quote of the Day
"The more we do to you, the less you seem to believe we are doing it."
- Dr. Joseph Mengele, Chief Universal Health Care provider
Quote of the Day Archives
- Dr. Joseph Mengele, Chief Universal Health Care provider
Quote of the Day Archives
Most Recent Comments
Current National Debt
$12.3T Owed
$75T in Mandatory Entitlements
120M Taxpayers (and falling)
$728,000 = Your Share**
**Payoff (does not include interest)
4.63% (Avg) Fed Bank Finance Rate
$75T in Mandatory Entitlements
120M Taxpayers (and falling)
$728,000 = Your Share**
**Payoff (does not include interest)
4.63% (Avg) Fed Bank Finance Rate
About me
- fdralloveragain
- Understanding nature's cycles is the key to successful trading. Cycles of all scales interlock in a dance that is both artistically simple and scientifically complex. Today's predominant cycle will take us deep into an economic depression. It isn't that we as individuals cannot comprehend our fate, it is that we as a group cannot avoid it.
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Market Snapshot
Gold and Silver
US$ vs Euro and Yen
(all major currencies are strengthening in unison)
3-Month T-Bill and 10-Year Bond
Market Trends
Dow:
S&P:
NASDAQ:
Gold:
Oil:
3 Month Treasury:
S&P:
NASDAQ:
Gold:
Oil:
3 Month Treasury:
Welcome to my financial blog
WARNING: This blog contains views that are often unconventional. That's because "conventional wisdom" is designed to take your money
DISCLAIMER: This blog may make specific forecasts, nothing is guaranteed so trade at your own risk. Some content might offend organizations created for the sole purpose of stealing other people's money. If you are offended by the content of this blog, don't read it (and stop stealing other people's money)
Open Market Forecasts:
Issued May 2007 - Short real estate, home builders, bond insurers and leveraged financials
Current Target - Ongoing declines
Issued Oct 2007 - Conservative investors go 100% cash and Treasuries
Next target - Two years of physical cash in home; Ladder short to medium term US Treasuries with the rest; Minimize bank account balances, CDs, and non-treasury bonds; associate high paying bond yields with capital starvation
Issued Oct 2007 - Short Dow (14,100) and broad market indexes
Next Targets:
by 2012 - Dow 3,800
then - as high as Dow 6,000
by 2025 - Dow 800
Issued Oct 2007 - Short Automakers and Airlines
Next Target - More declines, many luxury makes go the way of Duesenberg
by 2020 - pain
Next Target - Gold $475, other PMs with proportionate or greater declines
By 2020 - Gold $225
Next Target - $25
by 2020 - $4
Open Trend Forecasts:
Relentless DEFLATION
Increasing US Dollar buying power as measured by falling real estate prices, stock prices, most asset prices, and falling treasury yields; Periods of excessively negative 3 month treasury yields
Continued transfer of taxpayer funds, high yield preferred stock, risky loan guaranties, and asset holdings to the Federal Reserve and connected bankers in the face of taxpayer clamor; result: increased strain on commercial and consumer credit accelerates deflation
Main Stream Media to continue promoting Federal Reserve and banker agenda: more debt, more debt, more debt
5,000+ bank failures
More bank consolidations intended to shift FDIC insurance obligations to common stockholder losses
FDIC bailout/restructuring that compromises insurance payouts
Massive "New Deal 2.0" in order to transfer maximum wealth from the poor (taxpayers) to the Federal Reserve, connected bankers and corporations, and to benefit politicians; result: same as the original New Deal, economic depression
Supreme Court Increased to 11 Justices by 2015, unless the conservative majority yields first
Higher mileage vehicles go cheap and dirty, not expensive and "Green"
Continuation of 2007+ global cooling
CONTACT: fdralloveragain@yahoo.com
I appreciate succinctness, but... a tad more, please?
ReplyDeleteInAndOut here now (OutAndIn on MW),
ReplyDeleteI love your posts, I love your blog but you are confused FDR.
Gold is money. Gold is good. Gold will always have buying power. There is no reason to sell it.
I expressed my conviction in gold to you when gold was near 720. I hold this same stance.
At least I can disagree with you on at least 1 point. Spot on, please keep posting :)
Words, as is well known, are the great foes of reality.
ReplyDeleteJoseph Conrad (1857 – 1924)
The rumour about gold is that the Fed is using JP Morgan to short gold in large amounts to keep people from investing in it.
ReplyDeleteThis is one area I would not fight the Fed on.
Secondly, DEFLATION.
Why buy gold in a downtrend? Why not wait for signs of an uptrend? Buy low sell high...
Lol...
ReplyDelete"Why buy gold in a downtrend? Why not wait for signs of an uptrend? Buy low sell high..."
Your point is counterintuitive unto itself. You want to buy things on the lower end of valuation. Buy LOW, sell HIGH
Is this too flippant? :)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.josbank.com/IWCatSectionView.process?IWAction=Load&Merchant_Id=1&Section_Id=1000&ViewAll=1
The one ounce gold pieces are in the bottom few rows.
LOL...excellent. I don't have a clue, but I like this page better, the ones marked in red.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.josbank.com/IWCatSectionView.process?IWAction=Load&Merchant_Id=1&Section_Id=1101
my take is that a lot of that money flowing out of equities is finding a home somewhere besides T-bills. And that is into PM. Several backwardations signify a shortage of physical. 90 percent of recent gold buys are 1000 I'd. bars pointing to big buyers - sorry FDR - gotta disagree.
ReplyDeleteQUOTE: Your point is counterintuitive unto itself. You want to buy things on the lower end of valuation. Buy LOW, sell HIGH
ReplyDeleteANSWER: Okay, this is the basic problem in thinking that many amateurs have. I never said not to buy on the lower end of evaluation, but you cannot possibly know if something is on the lower end of evaluation until the bottom has been established. After all that IS the lowest end of evaluation. Otherwise you are simply guessing.
The obvious reason you NEVER buy something in a downtrend is that you are trying to bottom feed. But instead you end up buying something as the price is collapsing even further. In other words you are buying medium, not low, and you are losing money from the moment of purchase all the way down until the price hopefully bottoms and recovers. And you only ever make money if that price eventually comes back your way. But normally you get a margin call long before this time, or you just plain get tired of losing money as gold drops further.
You want to wait until the gold or stocks or whatever you trade has clearly changed trends and buy when the price will continue to rise after you buy it, which is once the bottom is ALREADY established.
The fact is that some goldbugs and most amateurs buy randomly when the price seems better than yesterday, but with no context whatsoever as to overall trend direction. The price is better than yesterday because it is DROPPING.
You buy something when the price will go back up, not when the price is going down. Otherwise you are CATCHING A FALLING KNIFE. This concept doesn't seem to register with some percent of goldbugs and general amateur traders.
Anybody who buys gold now, with the Fed clearly against them, and with DEFLATION clearly the word of the day, will certainly lose money.
As a matter of interest, I just read that China was supposed to make a big splash by buying up huge amounts of copper/zinc/industrial metals for their infrastructure stimulus.
ReplyDeleteThey ended up buying barely anything because they came in with such lowball prices that nobody would sell to them.
If China went in and bought at market price, that would have been inflationary, but China did not. If China keeps waiting for the cheapest prices, guess what? They will get their price soon enough.
QUOTE: my take is that a lot of that money flowing out of equities is finding a home somewhere besides T-bills. And that is into PM. Several backwardations signify a shortage of physical. 90 percent of recent gold buys are 1000 I'd. bars pointing to big buyers - sorry FDR - gotta disagree.
ReplyDeleteIt is known that big net worth clients have been piling into gold. So what?
They lost their shirt in equities, didn't they? So clearly these are not the brightest investors. They are buying at the absolute top of the gold market in the near term.
The Fed will eat their lunch for them.
Meets needle - when. Today it is $865.
ReplyDeleteEven a broken clock is right twice a day.
"my take is that a lot of that money flowing out of equities is finding a home somewhere"
ReplyDeleteMy take is that a lot of currency is being destroyed, and will find its home in Heaven.
Bullish sentiment has been growing in intensity the whole way down. This is not about people selling equities because they don't want them, this is about calling in equities. There is a burning desire to buy.
This avalanche has consumed nothing but optimists.
"my take is that a lot of money flowing...."
ReplyDelete"Bullish sentiment has been growing...."
I don't know too many who are any longer bullish - just people looking to park the remainder of their wealth; and seeing Treasuries as at BEST a break-even are betting instead on PM.
My other argument for gold's continued support is that the Dow/gold ratio still has a long way to retreat - if you think the Dow will go below 2000 in the next two years then I will agree that gold will be in a deflationary period; otherwise it will at least maintain its current valuation against the dollar IMHO.
I agree with FDR. I think Gold is going down just as everything is going down. People called me crazy when in 2005 I sold my last house. Houses continue to appreciate for another 5 months... I just rented. On the 6th month the mkt started going down...
ReplyDeleteI'd be more concerned with the Gold/Oil ratio is I was long gold. They usually trade in tandem. Guess which one is still too high?
ReplyDelete"usually trade in tandem" - usually when there is no currency crisis, I would agree. Gold is not trading as a commodity anymore, that is the flaw in your reasoning; it is now being traded as (insurance against existing currency) money.
ReplyDelete"Gold is not trading as a commodity anymore, that is the flaw in your reasoning; it is now being traded as (insurance against existing currency) money."
ReplyDeleteI don't see a distinction between commodities and money. Commodities are widely recognized forms of money, commonly valued and traded. Gold certainly fits that description.
Betting against the gold price is betting against the paper that prices all commodities/money.
But... it is a bet that will only pay off if the world doesn't end. Kind of like betting that you won't collect your own life insurance.
I think gold is ready to pop because paper is truly in dire straights and it has a lot of catching up to do. I also think forces who want you to believe the Fed can inflate (they can't) have been pumping gold artificially to affect market psychology. Same thing happened with oil, but that market is a lot more fluid.
If the tactic doesn't work (it hasn't) they will just dump the pump and collect most of the hot in the balloon, as a consolation prize for trying. Gold is a thin market, but no one can hold an illusion of inflation together for long in 2009.
Hello,
ReplyDeleteJust to comment about the excellent and fascinating mini lecture on EW.
Trying to combine both the EW charting and the upcoming deflation on precious metals, I have a question: Do GLD, SLV and the like also follows EW??
I'm sure they do since they track the actual price of the underlying metals. However, my main concern is do these EW patterns overlap with the ones for the stock markets or with each other like the S&P 500, DJIA, and Nasdaq do??
If not, do they run independently?? Just trying to gain some insight on these items.
Thanks a lot.
Hi Jam,
ReplyDeleteYes, metals prices are driven by human emotion and trace beautiful EWs. Some classes of trade have different visual signatures and traits, like any living organism.
Some of the exotic ETFs like the ultrashorts seem to be looted routinely, so they are hard to follow if they can be followed at all. Let me know if you figure them out from an EW perspective.