Saturday, January 17, 2009

The Almighty Dead Dollar

There is a lot of debate over the fate of the U.S. Dollar as the world economy buckles. I think the key to the hyperinflation vs. hyperdeflation debate boils down to a matter of intent. The Federal Reserve intends to hyperdeflate the dollar.

Once inflated debt is secured and plausible credit exhausted, the Fed wants to make the dollar very rare (deflation), not very plentiful (inflation). In this scenario, the dollar rapidly increases it's buying power, destroying collateral prices (value doesn't change a bit), and generally strengthens creditor positions over debtor positions.

Apart from the central bank's intent, I would add two ancillary reasons to expect a deflationary outcome:
  • All U.S. depressions have been deflationary, not counting the American Revolution which was a hyperinflationary event due to British counterfeiting the pewter Continental . This is because the unholy alliance between established government and banks is purely profit driven, not altruistic.
  • From a utilitarian perspective, it is hard to imagine a natural market outcome that so handsomely rewards debtors. Hyperinflation absolves all debts.
The reason the Fed intends to cause deflation is explained in a previous post, The Currency Scam. In my opinion, the central banks' intent is barely debatable, the same playbook has been in use for thousands of years. What is questionable is their ability to pull off an event of this magnitude.

There are two outcomes, as I see it:

1. The Fed successfully starves the nation of currency, suffocating her in debt, and the largest transfer of wealth in human history is pulled off in semi-controlled fashion. This is not hard to do, economically, because commercial banks print the vast majority of all currency in circulation, and they won't print more unless it is profitable to do so. That is, if they can find genuinely creditworthy borrowers. But in a recession/depression, printing new bank cash can be a losing proposition. Not only do banks lose the interest on new cash when a high risk borrower defaults, they lose a chunk of the principle.

There is also a deflationary multiplier effect. First, both the bank and the borrower double-account for loan collateral as an asset on their respective balance sheets. That is a linear accounting model, and it doesn't work during a deflation. There is a basic, unrecognized assumption (which is why associated risks are also unrecognized) that the currency itself is of constant value. In fact, constant currency is almost never in play, but during more common inflationary periods this is a cost positive double-mistake of omission, so both parties erroneously chalk up resulting gains to business prowess. There is also unrecognized growth in the value of the debt-collateral differential. Even if a price gap is modeled linearly, the gap is actually accelerating in value, or buying power, as the currency strengthens.

Advantage-squared goes to the creditor of last resort, the Federal Reserve, because only they have no relevant costs associated with lending.

2. There is a possibility that the Fed creates such social havoc that the system fails. Given the magnitude of the crises central banks have created, I think this is more likely than most people want to believe. Closer, too.

How systemic failure unfolds is anybody's guess. The end game of disorganized markets is probably hyperinflation. Not $10,000/ounce gold hyperinflation, but perhaps infinity in an instant hyperinflation. At that point chaos rules the day. We might have no schools, no hospitals, no police, no fire protection, no utilities, no military, no insurance, no pensions, no savings, no anything recognizable. So I say good luck trading scenario #2.

Many ask about gold as a hedge. Would physically possessing some gold help? I don't know. If it did, you probably wouldn't need much at today's valuation. I am all for holding some physical gold and silver as a Hail Mary hyperinflation hedge. But as is the case with all hedges, the plan is to lose that money. If you are making money on your hedges while the mitigated scenario has not developed, then you have no true hedge in place.

That has been my thought process for trading #1 since early 2007, organized hyperdeflation or rapid strengthening of the dollar driving prices lower, much lower, even if #2 is a strong possibility or follows #1.

15 comments:

  1. FDR, I imagine a #1.5 scenario and your laying out the polar opposites of the argument is greatly appreciated. This is the first time I have heard you evn mention to "I" word. Accordingly, any updates on rough estimates of the US equity indice averages, short term, medium and long? Is it time to flee US dollars and Treasuries and in what general timeframe? If so, any take on general plays such as debt [corporate, municipal, etc.] or equities (US or overseas) or is short and safe still the name of the game? Thank you.

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  2. Great post FDR. This is the best theory I've read on the deflation/hyperinflation argument.

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  3. My previous question was, "how is it possible that there is so much scarcity of money when the feds are printing money out of the thin air". I clearly see what is happening now. The fed is printing but the commercial bank printers which are responsible for most of the "fake" money in circulation are not. I see that the fed has injected perhaps on average about 200billion or more a month in the last few months. I now realize that commercial banks might inject as much as 2trillions or more a month. Our economy is essentially starving for $. Correct me if I am wrong but our economy is pretty much a giant ponzi scheme. If everyone wanted to get all of their money out of the system there would be bank runs, and actually it would be impossible to give all their money back. It just simply doesn't exist! Our ponzi scheme relies not on deposits but on loans that the general population makes. When people pay off their loans the money actually disappears. It sounds crazy but certainly I can see how it all makes sense.

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  4. "Correct me if I am wrong but our economy is pretty much a giant ponzi scheme. If everyone wanted to get all of their money out of the system there would be bank runs, and actually it would be impossible to give all their money back."

    You are correct chocolateMan. That's fractional reserve banking at it's finest.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractional-reserve_banking

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  5. "The fed is printing but the commercial bank printers which are responsible for most of the "fake" money in circulation are not."

    Exactly.

    "Correct me if I am wrong but our economy is pretty much a giant ponzi scheme."

    Our economy is a ponzi scheme when our currency is issued and exploited exclusively for the private profit of a small group of dominant men.

    Fortunately, Article I Section 8 of our Constitution prevents that.

    Unfortunately, congress hasn't read it.

    JRB even said Article I established the Executive, during the last VP debate. Seriously, what kind of life long senator doesn't understand that the People come first in the US Constitution?

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  6. Call my half glass empty but I just can't see how we are going to survive California going bankrupt. How much money is obama going to lend to california just to survive?

    And then the other 40 bankrupt states...

    This bankrupcy begins Feb 1.

    I am just having trouble understanding where all this money will come from.

    Yeah, we will probably pull through just by cashing another IOU to our children, but somehow we all know that downsizing the gov't will be a nonstarter and that is the ONLY solution.

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  7. "but somehow we all know that downsizing the gov't will be a nonstarter and that is the ONLY solution."

    Unfortunately we have a president who believes in big government & big spending.

    We are so screwed.

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  8. FDR

    I know you have been bearish on gold (paper value) as you are expecting a depression

    However, we are not heading into a depression, we are headed to a very serious period of stagflation (which is an inflation induced depression)

    Gold is still a bright spot :)

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  9. Wrong, friend, we are in fact heading into straight up no frills deflation.

    End of story.

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  10. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  11. "Deflation is a choice within the current monetary regime. It is a choice that our government has shown it will not make. There are serious long-term risks inherent in our dysfunctional monetary system, to be sure -- but deflation isn't one of them"

    If only governments could "chose" unlimited property and rainbows and butterflys forever.

    (I removed the very long comment, perhaps you could edit to a few paragraphs?)

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  12. ok , i was hoping for a little more from you though

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  13. Hi,

    My point was that neither the Federal Reserve nor the U.S. government has any constructive control whatsoever over the economy. So it is a false choice to wonder if they they will choose inflation or deflation.

    Neither has a say.

    It's like asking two leeches how they intend to practice medicine. They'll be happy to tell you, only because they sense an opportunity to better position themselves to suck blood.

    The government obviously has some legitimate functions, but they are exclusively a consumer of resources, not a producer. So they simply cannot help. They can consume more wealth, which obviously makes things worse.

    The Fed serves no purpose whatsoever, other than their fiduciary duty to siphon maximum wealth out of US citizen accounts and into their corporate shareholders' pockets.

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  14. So deflation is the order of the future? OK so Where does all the billions of dollars go that the Fed is printing and creating, surely that's inflationery?

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  15. "So deflation is the order of the future? OK so Where does all the billions of dollars go that the Fed is printing and creating, surely that's inflationery?"

    Hi,

    Technically the Fed can't print a dime of currency. They can print new bank reserves. Commercial banks buy those reserves, currently priced WAY above the market rate for same term money, and then they try to lend them into the economy which creates circulating currency.

    Right now banks can't lend, because the Fed is starving them by keeping their rates too high and the rules sane.

    Once the Fed breaks our banking system, seizes our assets for pennies on the dollar, empties the Treasury, and leaves the US for dead in a chaotic depression, they might relax the noose.

    Or maybe they won't, it all depends on what they have planned next.

    If history is any teacher, the plan includes seemingly endless global warfare to generate maximum debt, at maximum interest rates, and to motivate millions if not billions of broken souls to keep working.

    Unfortunately, congress is too dumb to realize what is happening and the executive has proven trivial to purchase.

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The USA's political-economc system is best described as:

On Nov 2, 2010, I plan to vote (FOR or AGAINST) my incumbent congressman

 
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