It's like 1931...
Sunday, January 31, 2010
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Audited return since Oct 14, 2009
.......Jul 28 ....... .....Total ...........
..n/al......+7.76% Subscribe or Click for Information
Gold and Silver
US$ vs Euro and Yen
(all major currencies are strengthening in unison)
3-Month T-Bill and 10-Year Bond
Welcome to my financial blog
Open Market Forecasts:
Open Trend Forecasts:
CONTACT: fdralloveragain@yahoo.com
Portfolio Watch
.......Jul 28 ....... .....Total ...........
..n/al......+7.76%
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Post Archives
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2010
(83)
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January
(28)
- It's No Longer Like 1929...
- Obama's Subprime Loan
- Paulson: "The Devil Made Me Do It"
- Excuse to Halt Production?
- How to Quit Your Job Forever
- Bernanke Confirmed: Market Crumbles
- "I didn't steal it."
- Paulson:
- Pop Quiz
- The People Revolt!
- ***** Privacy Alert *****
- 2000-2010: The Worst Financial Decade Since....
- How to Protect Yourself From the Federal Reserve
- Smarter than a Fifth Grader?
- Obama Warns Bank of America
- Too Much Information
- That Giant Sucking Sound Isn't Mexico
- Popularity Sinks Lifeboats
- Bank of America - Target for Destruction
- MAJOR Market Problems
- Ben's Helcopter Meets an Angry Mob of Lenders
- Goldman Sachs--About to Go Bankrupt, Again
- Global Warming Buries All of Europe Under Snow and...
- Goldman Sachs Sued by Illinois for Billions
- Why the Fed Rate Chases the 3-Month T Bill
- "Money" from Helicopters?
- Profits? Nah. Many Businesses Just Reaped Paper...
- How the Fed Banking Cartel Stays a Cartel
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January
(28)
Quote of the Day
"The more we do to you, the less you seem to believe we are doing it."
- Dr. Joseph Mengele, Chief Universal Health Care provider
Quote of the Day Archives
- Dr. Joseph Mengele, Chief Universal Health Care provider
Quote of the Day Archives
Most Recent Comments
Current National Debt
$12.3T Owed
$75T in Mandatory Entitlements
120M Taxpayers (and falling)
$728,000 = Your Share**
**Payoff (does not include interest)
4.63% (Avg) Fed Bank Finance Rate
$75T in Mandatory Entitlements
120M Taxpayers (and falling)
$728,000 = Your Share**
**Payoff (does not include interest)
4.63% (Avg) Fed Bank Finance Rate
About me
- fdralloveragain
- Understanding nature's cycles is the key to successful trading. Cycles of all scales interlock in a dance that is both artistically simple and scientifically complex. Today's predominant cycle will take us deep into an economic depression. It isn't that we as individuals cannot comprehend our fate, it is that we as a group cannot avoid it.
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Market Snapshot
Gold and Silver
US$ vs Euro and Yen
(all major currencies are strengthening in unison)
3-Month T-Bill and 10-Year Bond
Market Trends
Dow:
S&P:
NASDAQ:
Gold:
Oil:
3 Month Treasury:
S&P:
NASDAQ:
Gold:
Oil:
3 Month Treasury:
Welcome to my financial blog
WARNING: This blog contains views that are often unconventional. That's because "conventional wisdom" is designed to take your money
DISCLAIMER: This blog may make specific forecasts, nothing is guaranteed so trade at your own risk. Some content might offend organizations created for the sole purpose of stealing other people's money. If you are offended by the content of this blog, don't read it (and stop stealing other people's money)
Open Market Forecasts:
Issued May 2007 - Short real estate, home builders, bond insurers and leveraged financials
Current Target - Ongoing declines
Issued Oct 2007 - Conservative investors go 100% cash and Treasuries
Next target - Two years of physical cash in home; Ladder short to medium term US Treasuries with the rest; Minimize bank account balances, CDs, and non-treasury bonds; associate high paying bond yields with capital starvation
Issued Oct 2007 - Short Dow (14,100) and broad market indexes
Next Targets:
by 2012 - Dow 3,800
then - as high as Dow 6,000
by 2025 - Dow 800
Issued Oct 2007 - Short Automakers and Airlines
Next Target - More declines, many luxury makes go the way of Duesenberg
by 2020 - pain
Next Target - Gold $475, other PMs with proportionate or greater declines
By 2020 - Gold $225
Next Target - $25
by 2020 - $4
Open Trend Forecasts:
Relentless DEFLATION
Increasing US Dollar buying power as measured by falling real estate prices, stock prices, most asset prices, and falling treasury yields; Periods of excessively negative 3 month treasury yields
Continued transfer of taxpayer funds, high yield preferred stock, risky loan guaranties, and asset holdings to the Federal Reserve and connected bankers in the face of taxpayer clamor; result: increased strain on commercial and consumer credit accelerates deflation
Main Stream Media to continue promoting Federal Reserve and banker agenda: more debt, more debt, more debt
5,000+ bank failures
More bank consolidations intended to shift FDIC insurance obligations to common stockholder losses
FDIC bailout/restructuring that compromises insurance payouts
Massive "New Deal 2.0" in order to transfer maximum wealth from the poor (taxpayers) to the Federal Reserve, connected bankers and corporations, and to benefit politicians; result: same as the original New Deal, economic depression
Supreme Court Increased to 11 Justices by 2015, unless the conservative majority yields first
Higher mileage vehicles go cheap and dirty, not expensive and "Green"
Continuation of 2007+ global cooling
CONTACT: fdralloveragain@yahoo.com
Seems like our market crash of 11/07 - ? is taking 2-3 times longer than the 1929 crash.
ReplyDeleteDo you agree or not? Do you think this is due to increased government interference with the market compared to 1929? Do you think actions in the market will be more prolonged/drawn-out compared to 1929?
Certainly the DJIA graphs, outside of their relative time periods, are eerily consistent.
Yes, that is due to being of (at least) 1 higher degree.
ReplyDeleteAnd yes, it is due to increased gov interference.
In EW terms, higher degree = larger number of people participating. Gov = lots of people.
That's exactly why this crash will take decades to fully bottom. My Dow 3800 forecast is not a guess. 3800 takes us to the retracement guideline of similar degree, or the completion of the A wave.
The subsequent B and C wave is how nature unfolds the next degree. If we had good data (I don't), the 1836 crash would be the best smaller scale fractal match, end to end.
Comparing 1929-1932 is really comparing a Wave 4 to a Wave A-B-C, so the degrees/time scale won't match.
Excellent fractal analysis. Kudos, FDRAOA.
ReplyDeleteThis is great work.
ReplyDeleteI also was struggling with a 1929 comparison.
How would you analyze the gold fractal?
Have you had a good laugh yet today FDR?
ReplyDeleteJames Bull(t)ard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis said in an interview with the Financial Times that the deflation risk in the US has passed.
The magnificent mainstream media, policy wonk and punditry contrarian indicators just keep on coming.
"This is great work. I also was struggling with a 1929 comparison. How would you analyze the gold fractal?"
ReplyDeleteThanks, I posted that here:
http://fdralloveragain.blogspot.com/2009/11/holiday-update.html
If you want an even bigger pcture, realize that we are now in the C wave at the end of a complete 12345ABC cycle, so it will fractally match the smaller degree C wave of the wave 2 within the 12345ABC.
That's the Wave 2 that I illustrated in the link above--look in the mid-1970's.
FDR,
ReplyDeleteIs it also possible to "fractally" analyze the behavior of Silver??
It doesn't seen to be as easy to se as the one in Gold.
"The chart below shows a comparison of the Dow Jones Industrial average percentage change
ReplyDeletefor the periods of September 1929 - 1940 (blue) versus September 2007 - today (red), rebased on the respective peak days."
http://www.psychobanker.com/djchart.php
This percentage change side-by-side graph looks quite a bit different. It makes it appear as if we are not following the 29 crash. Any comments you have of this kind of comparison graph would be appreciated.
Thanks.