Sunday, January 31, 2010

It's No Longer Like 1929...

It's like 1931...


  1. Seems like our market crash of 11/07 - ? is taking 2-3 times longer than the 1929 crash.

    Do you agree or not? Do you think this is due to increased government interference with the market compared to 1929? Do you think actions in the market will be more prolonged/drawn-out compared to 1929?

    Certainly the DJIA graphs, outside of their relative time periods, are eerily consistent.

  2. Yes, that is due to being of (at least) 1 higher degree.

    And yes, it is due to increased gov interference.

    In EW terms, higher degree = larger number of people participating. Gov = lots of people.

    That's exactly why this crash will take decades to fully bottom. My Dow 3800 forecast is not a guess. 3800 takes us to the retracement guideline of similar degree, or the completion of the A wave.

    The subsequent B and C wave is how nature unfolds the next degree. If we had good data (I don't), the 1836 crash would be the best smaller scale fractal match, end to end.

    Comparing 1929-1932 is really comparing a Wave 4 to a Wave A-B-C, so the degrees/time scale won't match.

  3. Excellent fractal analysis. Kudos, FDRAOA.

  4. This is great work.

    I also was struggling with a 1929 comparison.

    How would you analyze the gold fractal?

  5. Have you had a good laugh yet today FDR?

    James Bull(t)ard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis said in an interview with the Financial Times that the deflation risk in the US has passed.

    The magnificent mainstream media, policy wonk and punditry contrarian indicators just keep on coming.

  6. "This is great work. I also was struggling with a 1929 comparison. How would you analyze the gold fractal?"

    Thanks, I posted that here:

    If you want an even bigger pcture, realize that we are now in the C wave at the end of a complete 12345ABC cycle, so it will fractally match the smaller degree C wave of the wave 2 within the 12345ABC.

    That's the Wave 2 that I illustrated in the link above--look in the mid-1970's.

  7. FDR,

    Is it also possible to "fractally" analyze the behavior of Silver??

    It doesn't seen to be as easy to se as the one in Gold.

  8. "The chart below shows a comparison of the Dow Jones Industrial average percentage change
    for the periods of September 1929 - 1940 (blue) versus September 2007 - today (red), rebased on the respective peak days."

    This percentage change side-by-side graph looks quite a bit different. It makes it appear as if we are not following the 29 crash. Any comments you have of this kind of comparison graph would be appreciated.



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