Thursday, March 19, 2009

Real Estate Starting Down

I have been preaching since early 2007 that real estate prices are getting ready to decline. Contrary to popular belief, the RE price decline has not begun in earnest.

The recent February 2009 report showed a decrease in housing starts of about -50% YOY, the worst performance ever. Janurary 2009 set the previous record at -48%. This is a good initial indicator that a substantial downturn in RE is finally underway.

We can expect final state RE price declines of roughly 90% from peak 2005-6 levels, probably less than a decade away.


  1. Can I short my house? :-)

  2. The one positive about that level , would be that you could buy a house earning minimum wage.

  3. Reverse mortgages still available?

  4. FDR,

    Regarding EW, why are you so convinced we are still in counter 4 of primary 1 instead of motive wave 1 of primary counter 2?


    Should we keep shorting until uncharted lows or should we exit now and go long all in.

    Is this the beginning of Wave 4 down or the beginning of wave 2 up?

  6. Looks like we might be covering our "shorts" tomorrow.

  7. Stocks and indexes in general are way extended to the upside. I think that exiting now before we give it a chance to oscillate down would not be the best risk/reward trade. If the subsequent low of the next short term cycle down doesn't break the lows of the previous low (Dow 6500ish) area then I will consider plowing my money in long.

    Just my opinion.


The USA's political-economc system is best described as:

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