http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-motors-revs-up-244-million-ipo-2010-06-28
Remember, selling to the public happens after the private owners feel they've taken an idea as far as it can go.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-motors-revs-up-244-million-ipo-2010-06-28
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Issued May 2007 - Short real estate, home builders, bond insurers and leveraged financials
Current Target - Ongoing declines
Issued Oct 2007 - Conservative investors go 100% cash and Treasuries
Next target - Two years of physical cash in home; Ladder short to medium term US Treasuries with the rest; Minimize bank account balances, CDs, and non-treasury bonds; associate high paying bond yields with capital starvation
Issued Oct 2007 - Short Dow (14,100) and broad market indexes
Next Targets:
by 2012 - Dow 3,800
then - as high as Dow 6,000
by 2025 - Dow 800
Issued Oct 2007 - Short Automakers and Airlines
Next Target - More declines, many luxury makes go the way of Duesenberg
by 2020 - pain
Next Target - Gold $475, other PMs with proportionate or greater declines
By 2020 - Gold $225
Next Target - $25
by 2020 - $4
Relentless DEFLATION
Increasing US Dollar buying power as measured by falling real estate prices, stock prices, most asset prices, and falling treasury yields; Periods of excessively negative 3 month treasury yields
Continued transfer of taxpayer funds, high yield preferred stock, risky loan guaranties, and asset holdings to the Federal Reserve and connected bankers in the face of taxpayer clamor; result: increased strain on commercial and consumer credit accelerates deflation
Main Stream Media to continue promoting Federal Reserve and banker agenda: more debt, more debt, more debt
5,000+ bank failures
More bank consolidations intended to shift FDIC insurance obligations to common stockholder losses
FDIC bailout/restructuring that compromises insurance payouts
Massive "New Deal 2.0" in order to transfer maximum wealth from the poor (taxpayers) to the Federal Reserve, connected bankers and corporations, and to benefit politicians; result: same as the original New Deal, economic depression
Supreme Court Increased to 11 Justices by 2015, unless the conservative majority yields first
Higher mileage vehicles go cheap and dirty, not expensive and "Green"
Continuation of 2007+ global cooling
What do you mean, what price did GOOG come public?
ReplyDeleteCompared to the period of privately-held explosiveness, GOOG's few times return is peanuts. They IPO'd at $100.
ReplyDeleteThere is clearly an art to when private owners dump a company, some choose to leave a little left in it to sell to a clueless public, some don't. GOOG's timing was decent as the market conditions were pre-1929-like.
GOOG stock is in the long process of going bust.
thank you, please write some more, i have been lonely refreshing this page everyday and getting nada. You are very comforting on my shorts on those days when they rip. My NFLX and AAPL shorts seem to never go down, and if they do they recoup all my gains in 5 minutes. This has been a difficult market to short.
ReplyDeleteWhat are your thoughts on the FED adding another $2.5 trillion to their balance sheet. They have a lot of room left to increase to their $5 trillion target. If they hit up QE2, what form do you think it would take, just keep driving interest rates lower across the board?
FDRAOA,
ReplyDeleteWhen do home prices take the next plunge? Next year?
Ref the q's above, the Fed generally likes low interest rates as it encourages industry and individuals to relay on debt instead of capital. It makes them relevant and creates dependency. Since they print cash without regard to reserves, or lack of them since they have delegated fiat power bought from congress, the interest rate really doesn't matter. Any percent return on top of freely printed cash is essentially an infinite private return at zero risk.
ReplyDeleteAs for housing prices, I think they've never stopped plunging, only taken a breather here and there. I haven't seen any significant uptick. I agree with your general sentiment though, that we are in for another harrowing dive in the near term.
You'll have to excuse my high or low posting pace now and then. I enjoy life and there is no change to the outlook, just more depression and more people catching on. How many different ways are there to say it?
ReplyDeleteI'll keep posting as it is a very interesting time to be alive. "Interesting" will someday morph to excruciating pain, but my hope is that like the Romans who watched their 5th wave empire collapse, the multi-century brunt of the Dark Ages were borne by innocents born long after they, and their immediate families, perished.
I hope we are so lucky. But I also know that hope is the four letter word of investing.
CASHZILLA please!
ReplyDeleteCould you touch on the stock buyback scam. I am trying to short AZO with $2 billion in debt and $2 a share in cash. What am I up against with this Eddie Lampert scam?
ReplyDeleteThanks for posting FDR. I enjoy your site.
ReplyDelete