Monday, November 23, 2009
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WARNING: This blog contains views that are often unconventional. That's because "conventional wisdom" is designed to take your money
DISCLAIMER: This blog may make specific forecasts, nothing is guaranteed so trade at your own risk. Some content might offend organizations created for the sole purpose of stealing other people's money. If you are offended by the content of this blog, don't read it (and stop stealing other people's money)
Issued May 2007 - Short real estate, home builders, bond insurers and leveraged financials
Current Target - Ongoing declines
Issued Oct 2007 - Conservative investors go 100% cash and Treasuries
Next target - Two years of physical cash in home; Ladder short to medium term US Treasuries with the rest; Minimize bank account balances, CDs, and non-treasury bonds; associate high paying bond yields with capital starvation
Issued Oct 2007 - Short Dow (14,100) and broad market indexes
Next Targets:
by 2012 - Dow 3,800
then - as high as Dow 6,000
by 2025 - Dow 800
Issued Oct 2007 - Short Automakers and Airlines
Next Target - More declines, many luxury makes go the way of Duesenberg
by 2020 - pain
Next Target - Gold $475, other PMs with proportionate or greater declines
By 2020 - Gold $225
Next Target - $25
by 2020 - $4
Relentless DEFLATION
Increasing US Dollar buying power as measured by falling real estate prices, stock prices, most asset prices, and falling treasury yields; Periods of excessively negative 3 month treasury yields
Continued transfer of taxpayer funds, high yield preferred stock, risky loan guaranties, and asset holdings to the Federal Reserve and connected bankers in the face of taxpayer clamor; result: increased strain on commercial and consumer credit accelerates deflation
Main Stream Media to continue promoting Federal Reserve and banker agenda: more debt, more debt, more debt
5,000+ bank failures
More bank consolidations intended to shift FDIC insurance obligations to common stockholder losses
FDIC bailout/restructuring that compromises insurance payouts
Massive "New Deal 2.0" in order to transfer maximum wealth from the poor (taxpayers) to the Federal Reserve, connected bankers and corporations, and to benefit politicians; result: same as the original New Deal, economic depression
Supreme Court Increased to 11 Justices by 2015, unless the conservative majority yields first
Higher mileage vehicles go cheap and dirty, not expensive and "Green"
Continuation of 2007+ global cooling
I've been predicting 2k gold for some time now...which I believe it will go within the next 6 months.
ReplyDeleteHowever, 50k gold...who would be the buyers of 50k gold? Banks? People?
Only way I see it happening is if some gold ETF get audited and surprise...no gold there!
If that is the case gold could spike uncontrollably.
Link to the story?
ReplyDeleteSubstitute "predicts $200 barrel oil" in July 2008 and it has a somewhat familiar (albeit golden) ring to it. Can the outcome be much different?
ReplyDeleteMust, resist, tempatation to throw maximum short.
That's right and I called the top in oil way too early at $135/br, too. But physics does apply, the dollar supply is plummeting faster than ever before.
ReplyDelete0% to negative % interest rates, and a 20 month raging bull market in the US dollar prove it.
It is a carbon copy of 1929-1932 but on a much grander and longer time scale.
This is one tough bull.
ReplyDeleteI keep thinking of the picture you posted not to long ago.
You should have Cashzilla take a bow once a month.
ReplyDeleteThe pic of Cashzilla Rocks !