Friday, October 2, 2009
We'll Miss You!
I took a real time snapshot for sentimental reasons. 9,500, you've been around for more than 10 years, suddenly, it's time to say goodbye forever. We'll miss you!
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WARNING: This blog contains views that are often unconventional. That's because "conventional wisdom" is designed to take your money
DISCLAIMER: This blog may make specific forecasts, nothing is guaranteed so trade at your own risk. Some content might offend organizations created for the sole purpose of stealing other people's money. If you are offended by the content of this blog, don't read it (and stop stealing other people's money)
Issued May 2007 - Short real estate, home builders, bond insurers and leveraged financials
Current Target - Ongoing declines
Issued Oct 2007 - Conservative investors go 100% cash and Treasuries
Next target - Two years of physical cash in home; Ladder short to medium term US Treasuries with the rest; Minimize bank account balances, CDs, and non-treasury bonds; associate high paying bond yields with capital starvation
Issued Oct 2007 - Short Dow (14,100) and broad market indexes
Next Targets:
by 2012 - Dow 3,800
then - as high as Dow 6,000
by 2025 - Dow 800
Issued Oct 2007 - Short Automakers and Airlines
Next Target - More declines, many luxury makes go the way of Duesenberg
by 2020 - pain
Next Target - Gold $475, other PMs with proportionate or greater declines
By 2020 - Gold $225
Next Target - $25
by 2020 - $4
Relentless DEFLATION
Increasing US Dollar buying power as measured by falling real estate prices, stock prices, most asset prices, and falling treasury yields; Periods of excessively negative 3 month treasury yields
Continued transfer of taxpayer funds, high yield preferred stock, risky loan guaranties, and asset holdings to the Federal Reserve and connected bankers in the face of taxpayer clamor; result: increased strain on commercial and consumer credit accelerates deflation
Main Stream Media to continue promoting Federal Reserve and banker agenda: more debt, more debt, more debt
5,000+ bank failures
More bank consolidations intended to shift FDIC insurance obligations to common stockholder losses
FDIC bailout/restructuring that compromises insurance payouts
Massive "New Deal 2.0" in order to transfer maximum wealth from the poor (taxpayers) to the Federal Reserve, connected bankers and corporations, and to benefit politicians; result: same as the original New Deal, economic depression
Supreme Court Increased to 11 Justices by 2015, unless the conservative majority yields first
Higher mileage vehicles go cheap and dirty, not expensive and "Green"
Continuation of 2007+ global cooling
Is it wrong that I hope you are right? I mean, I want the best for me and my family and I feel that down is the best. Because then and only then can we bring about real change for the better. Change that will foster a future for our children and grandchildren, free of Fed fueled mind control.
ReplyDeleteFdr: Bold claim to say the least. Not saying you're wrong, but how can you be so confident unless you're the one pulling the strings in this charade?
ReplyDeleteNot to be picky FDR but on September 28, if I read you correctly, you posted a Dow target of 9100 to be followed by a "sharp retrace" of most of the move down from the 9900 high. Would this not suggest your 9500 sayonara is premature?
ReplyDelete"Not to be picky FDR but on September 28, if I read you correctly, you posted a Dow target of 9100 to be followed by a "sharp retrace" of most of the move down from the 9900 high. Would this not suggest your 9500 sayonara is premature?"
ReplyDeleteMaybe a little bit.
I hasta la vista'd 12,500 like a week too early due to a minor retrace. But I think most people will forgive me if a miss a 10 year call by a day or two. :)
"Fdr: Bold claim to say the least. Not saying you're wrong, but how can you be so confident unless you're the one pulling the strings in this charade?"
ReplyDeleteI secretly control the market via personal satellite feed to my bunker in the caymans. I turn the big dial to the left for up and to the right for down ...no wait ...make that that the little dial.
Come on FDR. I've been following you since the early MW days and I expect calls within a day or two.
ReplyDeleteDow 9500 Que Sera Sera
ReplyDeleteIt would seem that we are all in a fifth wave
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GCV09.CMX&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
ReplyDeleteFDRAOA,
What's going on here? Any comments?
Thanks.
This claim suggest that there is about a zero chance of hyper inflation and the printing press comes to a screeching halt soon ?
ReplyDeleteFDR ,
ReplyDeleteIf we have weakness in the markets, won't they start injecting stimulus.
Ben is on the record of saying that higher equity prices make people feel better
"If we have weakness in the markets, won't they start injecting stimulus."
ReplyDeleteWho is "they?"
The United States government abdicated its constitutional mandate over monetary policy in 1913 to a ring of private banks called the Federal Reserve Corporation. The Federal Reserve Act passed on Dec 23, 1913, after congress broke for Christmas recess on a 5 to 0 voice vote.
As such, the US govt no longer has any power whatsoever over monetary policy - absolutely zilch. Everyone in our nation is legally powerless.
The Federal Reserve Corporation is a privately held company, residing above US law, that by its charter may only act when it is in their own best interest, in other words, when there is a profit to be made. Since handing out unlimited cash to US citizens is rarely profitable, hyperinflation is an absolute impossibility.
The Fed will print more paper to LOAN to us, often at an interest rate of 15% or more if the purpose is "high risk" like the loan to GM, but only if the taxpayers guaranty repayment (so there is no risk, but congress is too stupid to figure that out).
Obviously that is deflationary, since that printed loan + interest removes money from the economy upon forced repayment (unlike something like a subprime bank loan, which goes poof). Plus the Fed removes the financial value of the underlying asset when they force the company into bankruptcy due to shark rate interest payments piling up, GM-style.
As a side note, the House passed over 50 bills in 1931-1932 attempting to force the Federal Reserve Corporation to print more cash. All of them were laughed at.
Why does any of this matter if the banks do not have to mark any losses on their books? Why can't they just loan out money and if it defaults just not count it? Money is just paper, meaningless to the fed. I don't get why it matters if banks are solvent or not. They have been insolvent many times in history and the government just lets them unmark the losses, why will this time be any different? Can't they just pretend they don't have any losses? Funny all this worry over paper, but in the past it has never mattered how much debt countries have. You are willing to buy government debt here because you know they will just print more and give it to you. So you are giving someone $10 and they give you $.50c a year and spend your $10 on blow. They print more money to give you your .50c and then print the whole $10 when you ask for it. At the end they just keep printing. Couldn't the fed just buy stocks all day and print the market up so that mom and pop could get cash rich and cash out and borrow more and start the cycle over again. If inflation is impossible then they should just print the piss out of everything. Very confused at why this all matters this time but never did matter in history. The stock market has been going straight up for 100 years, even the recent past and worse recessions and depressions all look like minor retracements in a huge up move. Why is this time any different?
ReplyDelete"Why does any of this matter if the banks do not have to mark any losses on their books?"
ReplyDeleteGood question: it only matters when they are run upon and have to pay out what they don't have, like today.
"The stock market has been going straight up for 100 years"
The original Dow 30 is down 99%. Rotating indexes, which replace dogs as they die with another dying dog, are designed to deceive. Deception is the financial engine to transfer the peoples' wealth to the criminally wealthy.
"It would seem that we are all in a fifth wave"
ReplyDelete:)
Yes, the entire stock market, selling what private directors no longer want to the public, is nothing but a big 5th wave.
That is fundamentally why "buy and hold" is incredibly foolish over the long haul.
So if we were in a big 5th wave, the move down last year and into march wold be an A wave and this rally a B wave. Thus we are entering into the C wave down here that will take us below the March lows? Trying to grasp the elliot wave idea but it is impossible to determine what wave count because it keep changing depending on when you start. Looks great in the rear view mirror but going forward, how do we possibly now if where we sit?
ReplyDelete