Tuesday, September 29, 2009
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WARNING: This blog contains views that are often unconventional. That's because "conventional wisdom" is designed to take your money
DISCLAIMER: This blog may make specific forecasts, nothing is guaranteed so trade at your own risk. Some content might offend organizations created for the sole purpose of stealing other people's money. If you are offended by the content of this blog, don't read it (and stop stealing other people's money)
Issued May 2007 - Short real estate, home builders, bond insurers and leveraged financials
Current Target - Ongoing declines
Issued Oct 2007 - Conservative investors go 100% cash and Treasuries
Next target - Two years of physical cash in home; Ladder short to medium term US Treasuries with the rest; Minimize bank account balances, CDs, and non-treasury bonds; associate high paying bond yields with capital starvation
Issued Oct 2007 - Short Dow (14,100) and broad market indexes
Next Targets:
by 2012 - Dow 3,800
then - as high as Dow 6,000
by 2025 - Dow 800
Issued Oct 2007 - Short Automakers and Airlines
Next Target - More declines, many luxury makes go the way of Duesenberg
by 2020 - pain
Next Target - Gold $475, other PMs with proportionate or greater declines
By 2020 - Gold $225
Next Target - $25
by 2020 - $4
Relentless DEFLATION
Increasing US Dollar buying power as measured by falling real estate prices, stock prices, most asset prices, and falling treasury yields; Periods of excessively negative 3 month treasury yields
Continued transfer of taxpayer funds, high yield preferred stock, risky loan guaranties, and asset holdings to the Federal Reserve and connected bankers in the face of taxpayer clamor; result: increased strain on commercial and consumer credit accelerates deflation
Main Stream Media to continue promoting Federal Reserve and banker agenda: more debt, more debt, more debt
5,000+ bank failures
More bank consolidations intended to shift FDIC insurance obligations to common stockholder losses
FDIC bailout/restructuring that compromises insurance payouts
Massive "New Deal 2.0" in order to transfer maximum wealth from the poor (taxpayers) to the Federal Reserve, connected bankers and corporations, and to benefit politicians; result: same as the original New Deal, economic depression
Supreme Court Increased to 11 Justices by 2015, unless the conservative majority yields first
Higher mileage vehicles go cheap and dirty, not expensive and "Green"
Continuation of 2007+ global cooling
Any chance this market ever goes down? I already know the answer, but you always soothe me
ReplyDeleteConsider yourself soothed.
ReplyDeleteAren't you missing an r?
ReplyDeleteOr is that Bernanke making that wimpy noise?
Looks like the super rich, the banks, the central banks, and the governments are going 'All-In' to protect their status quo system.
ReplyDeleteCommon sense says they will win, only because they always have in the past.
Reason says the world as we know it will end, that all governments, all financial instruments will collapse to oblivion.
A sane person is almost forced into a box, rooting for our corrupt leaders to win this war, because the alternative is most certainly annihilation.
Got gold? Seeds, generators, etc? Those 'preps' so many people are stocking up on now will only be useful if some semblance of law and order remains intact. Otherwise, packs of young alpha males will become the new leaders, raping and pillaging from coast to coast.
Its gonna be fun watching this play out.
(Nice blog, btw)
FDR you say that DOW will soon be at 3800 in the next 3 years.Shedding off 20% a year is not exactly devastating considering that the first round took us from 14k to 6.5k in a year.So do you really expect it to take us 3 years for dow to 3800 or you half expect it to see it by next year itself considering the fact that you see this round as the most devastating.Does it also mean we will never see DOW 10k++ over the next two decades? Is it that bad?
ReplyDeleteIt would appear that currency manipulation is rampant.
ReplyDeleteDo you have the belief that the manipulators will recede? The usd has been significantly been played with to make the equity markets rise.