Friday, April 2, 2010

Cooking the Jobs Report

If ever there was evidence that government agencies are sensitive to political pressure (no!), todays jobs number is it.

After hiring 1.25M workers for the census (a waste of $22/hour on a political battle unrelated to the original purpose of the census), will the BLS use this opportunity to bury millions of lost jobs that they've been saving up? I wonder....

Any useful job-counting method would show +1.25M this cycle, at least as a starting point. Let's see how reliable and accurate the BLS really numbers really are. The implication of a number that isn't reasonably close to +1.25M is twofold:
1) It shows the true state of the economy, X - 1.25M = R (where X is the BLS' "saved-up" number and R is reality)

2) It will reveal with certainty that our unemployment stats are cooked
Of the two, #2 is the bigger problem.


  1. By Ed O'Keefe
    Washington Post Staff Writer
    Wednesday, February 24, 2010

    A majority of the roughly 1.2 million temporary jobs created by the U.S. Census Bureau this year will be created in the late spring, agency Director Robert Groves said Tuesday.

    Can each census worker only count to 33?

  2. "Can each census worker only count to 33?"

    I think it is spring, but even if you take half now and half later, the political cooking of jobs numbers is as clear as it ever will be (not that anyone can explain where jobs numbers comes from--even the BLS can't explain how their black box models function, or don't function).

    So we have (minimum) +162K -600K = -438K this round, with another -650K from the next round.

    The loss of -438K equals the city of Cleveland, -650K next time will wipe away Baltimore. estimates 22% total UE, just 2% below the Great Depression peak UE rate. I'm inclined to believe them.

    The question is will endless government jobs programs (each of which eliminates 2.2 real jobs) help us more than it helped them?

  3. The BLS report actually understates the strength in the economy. Once people look through the report over the weekend they should realize this and we should see some strong buying in equities come monday. The path to 1225 is already laid out, we will need to see negative employment numbers again to slow down the recovery. Just walking outside i can see that people I know are finding full time work again and there pay is back to what it was prior to the recession. Also, a lot of the commercial real estate is being leased out as new stores open. Banks as well are beginning to lend again to small businesses and homes are being started in our neighborhood. Things in Chicago are definitely looking much brighter these days. I don't think we are out of the woods yet, but a recovery stronger than anyone imagined is taking hold and I applaud those that have got us back on track. The equity market has been right on calling this recovery and the bond market is waking up as yields march higher. With greater demand for cash we would expect yields to start moving higher at this point in the cycle, very healthy. I suspect that the equity market, as cheap as it is here, needs to do some back and filling, but the old highs will be eclipsed next year or in 2012 and we will be on a much more firmer footing for the next advance. I think the decade long bear market is finally coming to a close, the next leg of the bull market should be the greatest in history as we swallow all of the technological advances of the last 20 years and hurdle forward. Good luck trading everyone.

    Several employment related statistics support Trimtabs’ conclusion that the labor market improved rapidly in March:
    · Real-Time tax withholding data shows that March wages and salaries grew an adjusted 4.3% y-o-y, the second consecutive month of positive gains.
    · The Monster Employment Index edged up 1 point in March.
    · The TrimTabs Online Jobs Index gained 5.3% in March, and is up 22.9% year-to-date.
    · Weekly unemployment claims declined 6,000 to 439,000 from 445,000 the previous week.

    Read more:

  4. I could have told you this was coming months ago as I saw prices rising across the board for everything from oil to paper assets. The equity markets are always ahead of the curve, that is why so many people lose money trading. There have been people shorting all the way up calling for deflation and now we have inflation, so they will start buying in 6 months and wonder why the market is struggling. Again, they will be a year late to the party

    The ECRI also reported their monthly measure of inflation and the indicator is beginning to show signs of broad price inflation. The U.S. Future Inflation Gauge rose to 102.1 from 99.4 in February. Achuthan says the price increases are part of the cyclical recovery:

  5. FDRAOA,
    The government has not hired 1,250,000 census workers yet. The BLS says they have hired only 48,000 so far. If you have better information, then please cite your sources.

  6. What else would expect from a bogus agency.

    Keep peeling the onion my friends, it's all cooked and your the main dish in the pot.

  7. stocks breaking out to new highs today. X and CREE leading the charge in the pre-market. With earnings set to eclipse all tim highs and corporate cash at an all time high, look for a very powerful move higher due to mere supply and demand for shares as corporations spend billions reducing the float for the next 2 years. We may be in a secular bear market but this bull has a couple of years to run on supply and demand alone. You can't fight all the cash that keeps piling up from earnings.

  8. Breaking 11k on the DOW should get the crowd back in for the power move higher. I think the FED will raise rates soon before they look like total idiots in creating another dot com bubble. The DOW could spring board right through 12k in April if the public jumps in. Watching steal you can tell this market is just getting started and the volume will be picking up soon. When we start to see massive volume up days the end will be near, but as long as the volume stays contained we should march higher as inflation fears powers the move higher in equities.

  9. FDRAOA,

    How about a general update post on the status of current events and markets.

    What's your take on dow 11k, gold 1130, silver 18, oil 85.

    From reading your blog, you have not expected these numbers, but of coarse allow for them.

    With all of this, if it's truly not getting better, it would suggest a major collapse.

    Would it not?

    Is someone going for broke?

  10. Now that yields are heading higher across the curve, this should be bullish for equities, correct? I have read some of your posts and you seem to believe that higher yields means that the economy is picking up as demand for cash is now increasing thus businesses are again booming. The mass layoffs have spurred a more productive and leaner environment for business, how high do you see equities going with higher rates finally here?

  11. Deflation - go X!

  12. What are, if any, the crossover points on gold and silver that will make you rethink the current wave count?

    Also, there was huge volume in march for silver contracts. Any ideas on this?


  13. A while ago, you mentioned gold and silver are just taking their time before they start a major downward move.

    Are you still thinking this?

    Or, has something changed in the social dynamics that will trump Elliot's wave theory?

  14. FDRAOA

    You still there buddy?

  15. Hope you are enjoying a little break from blogging.

    I have been thinking...

    We humans, as a whole and myself included, really do not have a sense of time on a large scale. No depth perception.

    I think you do, but I am still learning and I am adjusting my perspective to a grand scale.

    I think this is one of the most important aspects in dealing with the financial markets. We have been trained to think of results on a calender basis. IE, by the day, by the month, and by the year.

    It is funny and sad at the same time.

  16. Where you at? Im starting to get worried about you. You avent posted a update for awhile now???

  17. With the PPI running at roughly 8% annually, has the equity market been correct thus far in predicting the runaway inflation we are now seeing?

  18. FDR can you please update your thoughts ?

  19. Now I'm worried...

    I'm sure this is a non-paying gig, but where are you?

    Maybe you are saving all these Go Go Go comments so you can post them later when TSHTF?

    The Exponentional math of a debt based currency is the truth. My own calculations always show the end being near when the only way to "keep it going" is to EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE the DEBT while simutaneously EXPONENTIALLY DECREASE the INTEREST RATES.

    We are there, and it is here. The question is WHEN, not if it comes screeching to a halt as all trust and credit is broken at once...

  20. FDR, It's been a while since you stopped posting. We all looking forward to you coming back. Whetever the stupid had said, you've been right all along.
    Greetings from the cold land.
    Andrew Miller

  21. Dow going down past its March 2009 nadir.

  22. FDR please come back!


  23. Hi FDR,

    Was it you on the bike in the park that day? Yes - it was a rhetorical question... If by chance it was I'm sorry for my hostile attitude - these stalkers are getting to me. Anyway, I'm still interested if you are though you'll need to be up front with me because I'm nothing but hateful toward strangers paying too much attention to me these days...


  24. FDRAOA is right on the money in the macro view, we are headed for massive deflation. don't buy the inflationistas. the central bankers don't have control and a month after this post, its obvious things will deflate because we NEED to. the other option is war and revolution, the PTB cannot control a massive uprising, better to let things deflate. but even then, the game is up for them in the next ten years.

  25. Fdr:

    We miss your insight. I know there were some trolls here that kept on talking out of their *sses. The rest of us appreciate your humor and insight. I hope we can hear from you soon.

    good day,


The USA's political-economc system is best described as:

On Nov 2, 2010, I plan to vote (FOR or AGAINST) my incumbent congressman

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