A lot of people have asked for an update, so I've taken my stock updates from Jan 2009
...and Nov 27, 2009 (click to enlarge):
And I've appended my new thinking (click to enlarge):
As I've been saying but would like to reiterate, the major W5 on that chart (Wave A bottom) will likely happen in or around 2012. My target for Wave A is Dow 3,800. Time is difficult to estimate, and basically unimportant compared to the price target being achieved.
In other words, if EW's indicate that nature has programmed poker players to stand up and walk away from a poker table after losing $X, it doesn't really matter how many hands it takes to lose $X. That said, we might instinctively read into the same metaphor that time, or the number hands going nowhere, plays some role in the human decision making process.
