Monday, June 28, 2010

Green Exit Strategy

Remember, selling to the public happens after the private owners feel they've taken an idea as far as it can go.


  1. What do you mean, what price did GOOG come public?

  2. Compared to the period of privately-held explosiveness, GOOG's few times return is peanuts. They IPO'd at $100.

    There is clearly an art to when private owners dump a company, some choose to leave a little left in it to sell to a clueless public, some don't. GOOG's timing was decent as the market conditions were pre-1929-like.

    GOOG stock is in the long process of going bust.

  3. thank you, please write some more, i have been lonely refreshing this page everyday and getting nada. You are very comforting on my shorts on those days when they rip. My NFLX and AAPL shorts seem to never go down, and if they do they recoup all my gains in 5 minutes. This has been a difficult market to short.

    What are your thoughts on the FED adding another $2.5 trillion to their balance sheet. They have a lot of room left to increase to their $5 trillion target. If they hit up QE2, what form do you think it would take, just keep driving interest rates lower across the board?

  4. FDRAOA,

    When do home prices take the next plunge? Next year?

  5. Ref the q's above, the Fed generally likes low interest rates as it encourages industry and individuals to relay on debt instead of capital. It makes them relevant and creates dependency. Since they print cash without regard to reserves, or lack of them since they have delegated fiat power bought from congress, the interest rate really doesn't matter. Any percent return on top of freely printed cash is essentially an infinite private return at zero risk.

    As for housing prices, I think they've never stopped plunging, only taken a breather here and there. I haven't seen any significant uptick. I agree with your general sentiment though, that we are in for another harrowing dive in the near term.

  6. You'll have to excuse my high or low posting pace now and then. I enjoy life and there is no change to the outlook, just more depression and more people catching on. How many different ways are there to say it?

    I'll keep posting as it is a very interesting time to be alive. "Interesting" will someday morph to excruciating pain, but my hope is that like the Romans who watched their 5th wave empire collapse, the multi-century brunt of the Dark Ages were borne by innocents born long after they, and their immediate families, perished.

    I hope we are so lucky. But I also know that hope is the four letter word of investing.

  7. Could you touch on the stock buyback scam. I am trying to short AZO with $2 billion in debt and $2 a share in cash. What am I up against with this Eddie Lampert scam?

  8. Thanks for posting FDR. I enjoy your site.


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