Make no mistake about it, Great Depression 2.0 is under full steam.
In case anyone is wondering... no, there is nothing we can do about it. Though we can certainly make it worse. Since late-2007, our government has done everything they can to maximize and extend the pain.
This is my best-case prognosis:
2012: First major low (Dow 3,800-ish)Great Depression 1.0 was a 25 year grind before reclaiming the 1929 Dow high in 1954. GD 1.0 was of generally of lower severity than at least four deeper depressions (1775-6, 1836-42, 1862-5, 1874-94).
2012-2020: First major bounce (Dow might double to 6,000-8,000)
2020-2030: Final bottom (Dow stabilized below 2000, with a quick dip below 800)
Our depression should be the worst. It is our first large degree ABC. It started in 2000, so my forecast to last 20-30 years, essentially the same as GD 1.0, is probably way too rosy. Time is difficult to gauge, and not as important as touching the price targets. If you apply the simple EW guideline of 3/5ths the boom-time, we could, and perhaps should, languish for 90 years.
