tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post4572782818185881968..comments2023-08-10T11:39:24.714-04:00Comments on fdralloveragain: An EW Embryo?fdralloveragainhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03488923148019117760noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-11517418263915829742009-09-25T15:32:04.246-04:002009-09-25T15:32:04.246-04:00"1) What would be a proper investment to pres..."1) What would be a proper investment to preserve capital (besides an AR-15 and ammo)?"<br /><br />I would lean towards mostly plastic guns to minimize door-to-door confiscation.<br /><br />Minimum of 1 year of cash in home, then T-Bills or C of I.<br /><br />"2) What should the person with debt do? Should they keep the cash in hand and let the debt deflate too??!! Will the rate of debt /asset deflation outpace interest??!! LOL!"<br /><br />The problem is that inflated debt stays inflated while assets against it deflate. That is the hook that'll sink most people.<br /><br />Best idea is to put cash on debt unless you are good enough to outpace the interest rate by trading the stock crash--and--you can accept the risk of market failure breaking your trading masterpieces.<br /><br />"3) If a person is currently invested in the market, will cash in hand appreciate faster than shorting the mess?"<br /><br />Depends on you. In general, houses of cards ignite much faster than they go up. So you can probably heavily outpace the growth of cash with shorting if you're a disciplined trader. The key is not to be afraid to jump into cash to avoid excessive risk, its got a great yield so you can and probably should refuge often.fdralloveragainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03488923148019117760noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-14394050476660960732009-09-25T15:27:20.369-04:002009-09-25T15:27:20.369-04:00I think a better short term analysis is.... Friday...I think a better short term analysis is.... Friday, no volume = stick save and a ramp into the close regardless of Elliot wave. In hind site though after the close the Elliot Wave form will still play out, just will have to be reinterpretedAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-78852806720023572522009-09-25T15:20:46.912-04:002009-09-25T15:20:46.912-04:00"Do you have any thoughts on why the 29-30..."Do you have any thoughts on why the 29-30's<br />Deflation Bear Market was so quick paced<br />timewise compared to this 2000-? deflationary<br />Bear Market?<br />Could the timeframe pick-up into the C Wave"<br /><br />Last I checked, on a percentage basis we are ahead of the 1929-1932 fall (from the Dow peak of 14K)<br /><br />But...<br /><br />We should be behind it, since our degree is at least one larger, it should be a larger scale, slower decline.fdralloveragainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03488923148019117760noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-56877997058061451732009-09-25T15:08:52.585-04:002009-09-25T15:08:52.585-04:00FDR,
Do you have any thoughts on why the 29-30...FDR,<br /><br />Do you have any thoughts on why the 29-30's<br /><br />Deflation Bear Market was so quick paced<br /><br />timewise compared to this 2000-? deflationary<br /><br />Bear Market?<br /><br />Could the timeframe pick-up into the C Wave<br /><br />ThanksAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-70093791750344936452009-09-25T14:03:52.335-04:002009-09-25T14:03:52.335-04:00FDR,
I am enjoying this blog quite a bit!
I'...FDR,<br /><br />I am enjoying this blog quite a bit!<br /><br />I'd like your comment on a few scenarios.<br /><br />Scenario #1:<br /><br />20k Cash in Bank<br />10k Debt<br />0k Investments<br />-----------<br /><br />Scenario #2:<br /><br />20k Cash in Bank<br />0k Debt<br />10k Investments<br />----------<br /><br />Scenario #3:<br />20k Cash in Bank<br />20k Debt<br />0k Investments<br />----------<br /><br />Basically, I'd like to know:<br /><br />1) What would be a proper investment to preserve capital (besides an AR-15 and ammo)?<br /><br />2) What should the person with debt do? Should they keep the cash in hand and let the debt deflate too??!! Will the rate of debt /asset deflation outpace interest??!! LOL!<br /><br />3) If a person is currently invested in the market, will cash in hand appreciate faster than shorting the mess?<br /><br /><br />I hope this is clear! You have a young man up late at night reading voraciously!Busy Man Fitnesshttp://www.fitbusinessman.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-4415845559836909032009-09-25T11:30:32.345-04:002009-09-25T11:30:32.345-04:00That helps ! MY guess was that T-Bill holders woul...That helps ! MY guess was that T-Bill holders would be first in line.<br /><br />Cashzilla makes a nice screen saverRuss Wraithnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-1490635168957297912009-09-25T11:17:35.030-04:002009-09-25T11:17:35.030-04:00"Could you please explain again how short ter..."Could you please explain again how short term T-Bills are safer than dollars in a FDIC account at Wells Fargo ?"<br /><br />Well, my thought is that the T-Bill is a government promise backed by our entire GDP, and the FDIC is a stone-broke private insurance company with $0 backing $15T.fdralloveragainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03488923148019117760noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-22270139041468236222009-09-25T11:11:34.124-04:002009-09-25T11:11:34.124-04:00FDR
Could you please explain again how short term...FDR<br /><br />Could you please explain again how short term T-Bills are safer than dollars in a FDIC account at Wells Fargo ? <br /><br />If their is a collapse, i understand that people may not get to their money for months or a year. How is it very likely that you will get to your T-Bills and cash them out in a crazy and frantic state of events?Russ Wraithnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-45662655301823941842009-09-25T10:46:40.994-04:002009-09-25T10:46:40.994-04:00"How far out in treasuries would you go?"..."How far out in treasuries would you go?"<br /><br />Being a trader looking for 100s of % in chunks, I can't get excited about long term Ts. I know Ts are a smart place to park, but accepting pocket change to lock up capital might not be the smartest move.<br /><br />Personally, I buy short term T-Bills to get money through the door, then defund to C of I for continuous access. But that is a trader talking.fdralloveragainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03488923148019117760noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-88918338245826955122009-09-25T10:18:13.373-04:002009-09-25T10:18:13.373-04:00FDRAOA,
How far out in treasuries would you go?
...FDRAOA,<br /><br />How far out in treasuries would you go?<br /><br />ThanksAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-64461121235467759152009-09-25T08:56:02.178-04:002009-09-25T08:56:02.178-04:00Excellent workExcellent workAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com