tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post8155202398539561997..comments2023-08-10T11:39:24.714-04:00Comments on fdralloveragain: Popularity Sinks Lifeboatsfdralloveragainhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03488923148019117760noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-21609011354281719392010-01-22T20:29:00.312-05:002010-01-22T20:29:00.312-05:00"FDR, what do you think about EDZ? 3X emergin..."FDR, what do you think about EDZ? 3X emerging market short etf?"<br /><br />All double and triple leverage etf are designed to steal money, they do not produce the advertised return over time. A far better idea is to short the opposite-position 2x-3x leveraged etf.fdralloveragainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03488923148019117760noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-7752543093590748672010-01-20T21:59:16.622-05:002010-01-20T21:59:16.622-05:00FDR, what do you think about EDZ? 3X emerging mar...FDR, what do you think about EDZ? 3X emerging market short etf? I see a lot of problems with emerging markets being over-leveraged. Half of Europe is overleveraged, and China really hasn't experienced much of a downturn yet and could face trouble ahead. Curious to get your take on it.Joe Shareholderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17147606389622294202noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-83826473426615415492010-01-20T21:52:48.780-05:002010-01-20T21:52:48.780-05:00FDR, you said there has never been a better time t...FDR, you said there has never been a better time to go short. How confident are you that we'll see another nose dive? Would you recommend 50/50 long short or 25% long, 75% short? Would you recommend going 100%? 200% short? Just curious. What would you recommend to your clients?Joe Shareholderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17147606389622294202noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-62370261327699886332010-01-20T21:34:04.811-05:002010-01-20T21:34:04.811-05:00Thanks Hetty. I'm pretty excited about the ne...Thanks Hetty. I'm pretty excited about the next few years. The Bear Bandwagon (which didn't even exist in 07) is finally empty again. <br /><br />I think I might be the cockiest trader ever to be down 8%. But that's a quick snapshot in volatile market, give it a little time to roll over...fdralloveragainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03488923148019117760noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-73250029952985382042010-01-20T18:54:04.287-05:002010-01-20T18:54:04.287-05:00I see those gold and silver short plays are workin...I see those gold and silver short plays are working well today FDR (+13%). Nice.hettygreenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02942359318618747424noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-12260520589435561552010-01-20T16:59:27.169-05:002010-01-20T16:59:27.169-05:00Personally, I don't care what the published P/...Personally, I don't care what the published P/E of Cree says, or any company's, as I don't believe their accounting.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-15547135772094946572010-01-20T16:04:37.092-05:002010-01-20T16:04:37.092-05:00"Perception is all that matters, everything t..."Perception is all that matters, everything that is wrong with the economy is already known."<br /><br />Maybe, by the 2% who register bearish.fdralloveragainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03488923148019117760noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-27620006344922349552010-01-20T14:47:02.035-05:002010-01-20T14:47:02.035-05:00You can have a domestic depression and a 30 p/e. ...You can have a domestic depression and a 30 p/e. The evidence is right in front of you, you just need to understand why. Perception is all that matters, everything that is wrong with the economy is already known. Everyone knows the banks are insolvent, everyone knows the debt to GDP is off the charts. What does that have to do with CREE? Follow the cash flow and you will find the profits. Maybe something unknown occurs that the market has not discounted and you may return to a time when people have a different tolerance for risk and thus are not willing to pay a premium for something. Until now the market is trading at a pretty historically average price. Those that understand how the markets work have been long for months and are now selling because the market is fairly valued and there is no distinct advantage to being long or short, so take the profits and wait for the next rally to get short or the next tank job to get long. The money is made in fading the large swings. If you don't care about losses you can of course always buy or always sell and you will both win depending on when you exit.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-44266746971008329722010-01-20T13:15:04.504-05:002010-01-20T13:15:04.504-05:00"They wake up to find out that the stock beat..."They wake up to find out that the stock beat earnings and is now a 30 p/e company"<br /><br />Even a 30 P/E still needs to fall 80% in price to get to the "normal" depression range, assuming earnings don't get depressed too.<br /><br />But P/Es in isolation are meaningless. For example, 5th waves could produce extreme P/E's that are just fine. <br /><br />Since we are starting a 3rd wave down right now, major index P/Es flashing near 200 mean something. Big.fdralloveragainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03488923148019117760noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-32656988725970998182010-01-20T12:59:14.971-05:002010-01-20T12:59:14.971-05:00Take a look at CREE. People thought they were sho...Take a look at CREE. People thought they were shorting a 100 p/e company because they were looking in the rearview mirror. They wake up to find out that the stock beat earnings and is now a 30 p/e company, even with the stock up 15%. This is the problem with looking at trailing earnings, they mean nothing, all that matters is future earnings. For your predictions to come true you need to see the S&P bring in earnings in the $40 range in 2010. This is very possible, but if the S&P brings in $70, which would be coming up short of most peoples view, it is fairly valued in here, maybe better valued around 1000. Should be an interesting year, but CREE shows you why much of your basis is flawed. Of course I sold into CREE here as it is a good time to get out when the shorts mis- read reality and are forced to cover. I bought shares from them and sold them back to them.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com