tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post8150864695788661862..comments2023-08-10T11:39:24.714-04:00Comments on fdralloveragain: TRADING ALERT: Too Much Liquidity is Your Friendfdralloveragainhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03488923148019117760noreply@blogger.comBlogger36125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-74456537145285361482010-03-19T19:24:00.466-04:002010-03-19T19:24:00.466-04:00Did Bernanke just declare war on China?Did Bernanke just declare war on China?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-19126115466756386142010-03-19T10:48:16.726-04:002010-03-19T10:48:16.726-04:00Wow. Based on the confidence, bordering on striden...Wow. Based on the confidence, bordering on stridency I am seeing in many of the bullish oriented comments (and the almost deafening silence from the bear side), can an inflection point really be that far away?hettygreenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02942359318618747424noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-92085077278444677572010-03-18T20:48:38.043-04:002010-03-18T20:48:38.043-04:00FDR,
I think you should frame some of these uber ...FDR,<br /><br />I think you should frame some of these uber bullish comments and revisit them a year from now. I've never seen such sentiment, even at the October 2007 peak.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-70489351174798367922010-03-18T20:08:56.188-04:002010-03-18T20:08:56.188-04:00"I would like to hear your take on the latest..."I would like to hear your take on the latest news hitting the blogs about removing the reserve requirement on banks."<br /><br />I think it is to be expected, the Fed is stone broke. As long as they aren't allowed to print money to stuff directly into their own pockets, they have to find a borrower to print and the interest on printing more currency is how they make money. <br /><br />That clearly isn't happening or they wouldn't be fire-saling funny-money at 0%. <br /><br />The move to eliminate reserves has virtually no impact, since banks keeping no reserves is what created our un-backed currency crises. <br /><br />It is a move of desperation, though, which is interesting given that the "recession is over."fdralloveragainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03488923148019117760noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-16772218704293985932010-03-18T19:59:45.539-04:002010-03-18T19:59:45.539-04:00"FDR, simple question. Sorry, I'm a newbi..."FDR, simple question. Sorry, I'm a newbie, what does deflation have to do with the stock market?"<br /><br />Ask Hoover why he didn't get reelected.fdralloveragainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03488923148019117760noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-17598092522450423342010-03-18T19:51:47.218-04:002010-03-18T19:51:47.218-04:00"What do you make of the effective fed funds ..."What do you make of the effective fed funds rate going up lately? If there is more demand for fed funds, does that mean loan demand is picking up?"<br /><br />We've seen the 3-M T pick up to 0.15% or so. But that's effectively 0%. Getting exciting about .15% is like taking comfort in your BSC stock tripling in one day to 3 cents.<br /><br />You hear the same irrational exuberance in stocks, "we made 70% in a year!" To which I offer the same BSC analogy. Nobody who's been generally long stocks, has made money in over a decade. If you figure buying power loss, most stock holders are close to zeroing out. Even major indexes, with the luxury of rotating out of the losers, are down 85-95% inflation adjusted.<br /><br />It is interesting that over the past decade they lost during a period of intense inflation (2000-2007: Dow up 20%, gold up 300% = huge loss of buying power). <br /><br />And during deflation, they are losing just as big (2007-2010: Down down 35%; gold up 15% = huge loss in buying power).<br /><br />This confirms the view that the era of hyperinflation from 1932 ended in 2000, not 2007, because if those who have been in paper since then are losing both ways. The seesaw is teetering, but the fulcrum is falling.fdralloveragainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03488923148019117760noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-17135033180496972712010-03-18T18:28:15.312-04:002010-03-18T18:28:15.312-04:00What do you make of the effective fed funds rate g...What do you make of the effective fed funds rate going up lately? If there is more demand for fed funds, does that mean loan demand is picking up?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-14984863736517862572010-03-18T18:24:48.380-04:002010-03-18T18:24:48.380-04:00The VIX is heading to the 2008 lows of 15.82.
What...The VIX is heading to the 2008 lows of 15.82.<br />What do you see in the VIX?<br /><br />thx<br /><br />plAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-89797818083415746872010-03-18T16:38:15.316-04:002010-03-18T16:38:15.316-04:00Consolidation continues, making this a clear 4th w...Consolidation continues, making this a clear 4th wave of larger degree. Get ready for the wave 5 rocket northAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-29615978297829682682010-03-18T14:00:32.867-04:002010-03-18T14:00:32.867-04:00Hey fdralloveragain,
I would like to hear your ta...Hey fdralloveragain,<br /><br />I would like to hear your take on the latest news hitting the blogs about removing the reserve requirement on banks.<br /><br />Thanks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-38963102129885319372010-03-18T11:56:01.297-04:002010-03-18T11:56:01.297-04:00FDR, have you seen this? WT*?
http://finance.yah...FDR, have you seen this? WT*?<br /><br />http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/bernanke-wants-to-eliminate-reserve-requirements-completely-444354.html?tickers=dia%2Cspy%2Cxlf%2Ctlt%2Ctbt%2CgldAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-73585276399747917832010-03-18T01:28:55.392-04:002010-03-18T01:28:55.392-04:00http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_mNgsiAj3Xko/S6GKidLMg-I/...http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_mNgsiAj3Xko/S6GKidLMg-I/AAAAAAAABxo/4uJlaxUjUaQ/s1600-h/spx-17-7.pngAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-79816469723549395132010-03-18T01:09:06.598-04:002010-03-18T01:09:06.598-04:00FDR, simple question. Sorry, I'm a newbie, wh...FDR, simple question. Sorry, I'm a newbie, what does deflation have to do with the stock market? It seems like you make a lot of sense, but in the real world you are completely wrong? What am I missing?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-4548254799740888792010-03-18T00:34:33.061-04:002010-03-18T00:34:33.061-04:00China allowing the yuan to rise should be explosiv...China allowing the yuan to rise should be explosive for the US equity markets going forward. I suspect a large move tomorrow north on this news. The EW count will soon see the magnitude of the largest bull market in US history. The global economy has never been in better shape and we will see the DOW trade north of 20000 in 3 years on the biggest expansion in history.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-3344607452002554642010-03-18T00:01:06.961-04:002010-03-18T00:01:06.961-04:00FDR -
I talk to 200+ real estate agents every si...FDR - <br /><br />I talk to 200+ real estate agents every single day (M-F) <br /><br />There is a firm belief that interest rate will remain low for years. <br /><br />I ask them what would happen if interest rates went up. They all say it would be a depression. <br /><br />So if the Fed chases the 3M. When will the 3M rise?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-69782919163925042352010-03-17T22:07:55.152-04:002010-03-17T22:07:55.152-04:00Are you changing your P2 targets now, seems we hav...Are you changing your P2 targets now, seems we have a long way to go. Since everyone knows what the EW targets are, won't the FED and GS just take them out to negate all the counts. If we can take out 14k on the DOW this summer, would you change your count? The market seems cheap here with companies like NKE coming in with sales up 100%, it seems the consumer is alive and well. I have yet to see this recession as anything more than garden variety. The cycle should be swinging in the direction it is. I assume we have another 3-4 years of upside here with very little risk unless earnings turn down, but with unemployment falling fast the profits should continue to outperform and the market should as well. I think we see a dramatic pickup in lending and thus short term rates soon. My broker has been spot on averaging me down through 2008, it was scary but he was right. I am up 100% from the top in 2007. I agree that is insane, but the government is giving us free money as long as we keep buying. I am not sure how much you can make with your thesis but what would it take for you to double your cash like me? If it is cash you desire, why don't you want more of it? I don't understand that part of your thinking, you speak of cash as king, yet you don't want any. What gives?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-61736723328861196472010-03-17T19:38:11.608-04:002010-03-17T19:38:11.608-04:00Hi FDR,
Very much related to your current topic, ...Hi FDR,<br /><br />Very much related to your current topic, I found an interesting chart online.<br /><br />http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_OpWmYZm7O8I/SpbUGdj0-9I/AAAAAAAAAK4/gBXWIlGFIsE/s1600-h/00binve-001-13-spec-longest.png<br /><br />I would appreciate if you could give your opinion on this one. Thanks!Jim Smithnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-30242561669193095582010-03-17T18:47:16.896-04:002010-03-17T18:47:16.896-04:00LOL. P2 is going to be larger than P1, which mean...LOL. P2 is going to be larger than P1, which means of course that P1 was not P1 after all, which means this is not P2, which means there is no P3. Dow theory buy signal today with NKE coming out with sales doubling. Oh, the poor consumer is buying 2 pairs. FDR, have you lost your way. See you at my targets, like taking candy from a baby with you shorts.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-7337540889787739732010-03-16T20:13:09.538-04:002010-03-16T20:13:09.538-04:00Hi FDR, Thanks for answering endless questions. I...Hi FDR, Thanks for answering endless questions. I read everything I can. I hope this question interests you. <br /><br />I just found this comment/chart on Zero Hedge:<br /><br />http://www.latin-focus.com/latinfocus/countries/argentina/argcpi.htm<br /><br />deflation = debt default, debt default = currency crisis, currency crisis = hyperinflation event and/or bank closure with forced currency devaluation. IMO we are within striking distance of a bank closure event here in the U.S.<br /><br />See the graph. Be the graph. We are one with the graph. See those lovely two flirtations with deflation going into the crackup? #2 coming right up.<br /><br />Question is: How are we different from Argentina?Alannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-23752437261915326392010-03-16T18:02:39.067-04:002010-03-16T18:02:39.067-04:00Just a follow up to the volume question.
What tim...Just a follow up to the volume question.<br /><br />What time period do you use for the volume comparison?<br /><br />Do you look back 1 year, 5 years, etc.?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-26144569259908749522010-03-16T17:32:57.346-04:002010-03-16T17:32:57.346-04:00FDRAOA, where exactly do you look to judge market ...FDRAOA, where exactly do you look to judge market volume?<br /><br />Is it the DJI index?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-73953016127065999452010-03-16T16:21:11.263-04:002010-03-16T16:21:11.263-04:00Since the market has had no trouble with the 50% r...Since the market has had no trouble with the 50% retracement in the DOW, should we look to see how it handles the 11,247 area next. I think if you are right about P3 then we need to hit 12,382 first, in order to get enough people in to sell. There is no way this market declines here because the ownership is too small and they just don't need to sell. As long as the public stays out of this market, we should retrace much further. Taking out 10729.90 this week should launch us right to 11247 before the end of March or first week of April. I assume the jobs report in April will give us the pop to the mid to high 11,000's. Then into the summer, where the volume will slow down and the VIX will trade back into the 12's. At this point the public may get itchy and start buying in the fall. The banks will give them a taste of success and the buy volume will drive us to the 12382 area with an over throw to 12500. From here I think we fall in dramatic fashion into the late fall and see where we are. I recommend continuing to buy high beta names here and financials, as we have a couple of thousand points to go before the rally has any risk of rolling over. The fall in the VIX should generate more of a levitation affect ahead. If the news starts to actually get better, then that may hurt the bullish case. As long as the news is terrible and the deflationists are still worried then there is a lot of upside left in the market. Volume means very little because rally's always start on low volume then pick up volume late. You want to buy when the volume is low and sell into volume, as they are late to the game. If this were opposite then the majority of people would make money in the market, not the opposite. All those buying in disbelief right now are making more money than any time in the history of the markets. 500-600 percent returns in months. Congrats to fellow longs, when the volume picks up, start lightening up and look for huge volume in the fall to start getting shortAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-39470043868036853552010-03-16T15:02:14.832-04:002010-03-16T15:02:14.832-04:00Today
M Jackson estate 250 mil deal from Sony
Ti...Today<br /><br />M Jackson estate 250 mil deal from Sony<br /><br />Tiger Woods return bigger than Superbowl(MktWatch)<br /><br />Two classic symbols of the Bull Mkt(Prechter) <br /> <br />Both in classic topping action of their w2 <br /><br />retracement on the same day.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-58397580793221273882010-03-16T14:22:30.856-04:002010-03-16T14:22:30.856-04:00"Looking at my daily SPX chart, I can't s..."Looking at my daily SPX chart, I can't see your count."<br /><br />Here is the big picture for context. For teh Dow, we are completing the first W1-W2 of the large W3 downward. The first red line on the charts located here: <br /><br />http://fdralloveragain.blogspot.com/2010/03/stock-market-update.htmlfdralloveragainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03488923148019117760noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-33556589948999264122010-03-16T13:24:53.488-04:002010-03-16T13:24:53.488-04:00Looking at my daily SPX chart, I can't see you...Looking at my daily SPX chart, I can't see your count. I see what seems clear to be 5 waves of an A wave forming, which would point to a B wave correction soon followed by a massive C wave move to new highs.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com