tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post7502302465500917309..comments2023-08-10T11:39:24.714-04:00Comments on fdralloveragain: TRADING ALERTfdralloveragainhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03488923148019117760noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-57070263033581735902009-04-23T19:40:00.000-04:002009-04-23T19:40:00.000-04:00So do I have this right? The options are
1) fall...So do I have this right? The options are<br /><br />1) fall to 7500 and bounce up followed by economic collapse<br />2) fall to 7500 and bounce up followed by economic collapse<br />3) fall below 7500 followed by economic collapse<br /><br />Right?TonyWnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-76594179207460765612009-04-23T18:17:00.000-04:002009-04-23T18:17:00.000-04:00"Gold and silver cannot default on you, lie to you..."Gold and silver cannot default on you, lie to you or steal from you."<br /><br />Same is true for a house or a handgun. All of these things are money, as is gold, traditionally.<br /><br />As you can see from my quick list in: <A HREF="http://fdralloveragain.blogspot.com/2009/03/stocks-vs-gold.html" REL="nofollow">Stocks vs. Gold</A>, some money does better than others during deflations and inflations, but for the most part, monetary VALUEs really don't change much, including gold. Prices change a lot.<br /><br />That is because the only really liquid variable in day-to-day trading is the paper the supply, so prices are very easily universally manipulated. That affects all things priced by paper, not just some things.<br /><br />For VALUEs to change, you really need a sea change, some a long term shift in industrialization, etc.<br /><br />For simple deflation, the best thing to hold is the last thing you want to hold during inflation: cash.<br /><br />In fact, cash is up 100% in buying power since Oct 2007.<br /><br />Gold comes close as it is only off 10-20% from highs, but as money priced in tremendously strengthening (deflating) paper dollars, it has some catching up on the downside.fdralloveragainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03488923148019117760noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-89233252865403648032009-04-23T17:38:00.000-04:002009-04-23T17:38:00.000-04:00Anonymous at 5:10PM
I think you are right from th...Anonymous at 5:10PM<br /><br />I think you are right from the safety perspective of holding physical PM's.<br /><br />But buying gold at $900 an ounce today, and selling it for $450 an ounce a few years later after deflation has run it's course is not a losing proposition?<br /><br />Is it not better to hold the $900 in paper notes and buy two ounces of gold later with those same pieces of green paper?Highproteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02110221850595187829noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-53808676288114628502009-04-23T17:10:00.000-04:002009-04-23T17:10:00.000-04:00"In a deflation environment, holding gold/silver i..."In a deflation environment, holding gold/silver is a losing proposition as their value goes up, but their price in dollars goes down."<br /><br />Gold and silver will not be losing propositions if the deflation you are talking about is severe enough to destroy the bank you have your deposits in and the government agency that insures those deposits.<br /><br />Gold and silver cannot default on you, lie to you or steal from you. They are assets which are no one else's liabilities. In other words they are REAL.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-92042493278520632272009-04-23T12:58:00.000-04:002009-04-23T12:58:00.000-04:00I'm not going to put words in FDRAOA's mouth, but ...I'm not going to put words in FDRAOA's mouth, but I think it's pretty clear from multiple posts he has made here and earlier on MW, he is saying keep *some* gold and silver in the event of a currency collapse (i.e. 'they' find a black-swan way to hyperinflate overnight vs. the current deflation going on now). <br /><br />In a deflation environment, holding gold/silver is a losing proposition as their value goes up, but their price in dollars goes down.<br /><br />I don't think he is saying 'invest' in gold/silver...he's saying keep some in a safe just in case, while understanding you are praying you never have to resort to buying a loaf of bread with a Morgan.<br /><br />-TKHighproteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02110221850595187829noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-4398686119051605702009-04-23T11:21:00.000-04:002009-04-23T11:21:00.000-04:00"This is the first time since this blog was create..."This is the first time since this blog was created that you said buy gold. So I am just curious."<br /><br />http://fdralloveragain.blogspot.com/2009/01/gold-money-or-currency.html<br /><br />http://fdralloveragain.blogspot.com/2009/01/almighty-dead-dollar.htmlfdralloveragainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03488923148019117760noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-45964919051967073392009-04-23T11:20:00.000-04:002009-04-23T11:20:00.000-04:00To Anonymous @ 10:46....This is FDR's financial bl...To Anonymous @ 10:46....This is FDR's financial blog, not FDR's babysitting service. Some level of sense is required.<br /><br />If you are waiting for someone else to tell you exactly where to look and what to do at all times without you exerting any effort, you don't really deserve the rewards of successful investing / trading. Think about it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-43553568964067129802009-04-23T11:16:00.000-04:002009-04-23T11:16:00.000-04:00"Buy gold or short gold? If both how much of each?..."Buy gold or short gold? If both how much of each?"<br /><br />Buy a small amount of physical Gold. Short the paper gold like GLD or IAU. A little physical gold will go along way. Just pray you never need it...or your mattress cash.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-51322095195403785432009-04-23T10:46:00.000-04:002009-04-23T10:46:00.000-04:00I have read the blog. Not sure which post you want...I have read the blog. Not sure which post you want me to read. <br /><br />I've read most of them and particularly the "Trading Mania" post states categorically to stay away from gold. Here you say buy gold. <br /><br />Buy gold or short gold? If both how much of each?<br /><br />This is the first time since this blog was created that you said buy gold. So I am just curious.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-91662481087335119962009-04-23T10:41:00.000-04:002009-04-23T10:41:00.000-04:00"Why would you hedge with something that you belie..."Why would you hedge with something that you believe is on the verge of collapse? <br /><br />Isn't that like buying an insurance policy you don't think will pay out?"<br /><br />It's called diversification. It's not about making money. It's called protecting yourself (hedging) against all possible scenarios. Again, it's not about return.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-90458438397395574832009-04-23T10:40:00.000-04:002009-04-23T10:40:00.000-04:00How many times I have to post the same thing?
Rea...How many times I have to post the same thing?<br /><br />Read the blog.<br /><br />It's hard to imagine a dumber trade than setting up a hedge you hope will pay out.fdralloveragainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03488923148019117760noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-54221815612598095862009-04-23T10:26:00.000-04:002009-04-23T10:26:00.000-04:00I know but you said that gold and silver were the ...I know but you said that gold and silver were the best shorts on the market. <br /><br />Why would you hedge with something that you believe is on the verge of collapse? <br /><br />Isn't that like buying an insurance policy you don't think will pay out?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-50584978460065630962009-04-23T10:09:00.000-04:002009-04-23T10:09:00.000-04:00"Did you just say BUY gold/silver and hoarde it wi..."Did you just say BUY gold/silver and hoarde it with a supply of cash?"<br /><br />No, I've been saying it for years. It's called a hedge, or insurance. You should never buy hedge or insurance to make money, or you aren't insured and you aren't hedged.fdralloveragainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03488923148019117760noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-39404095416665379252009-04-23T09:46:00.000-04:002009-04-23T09:46:00.000-04:00FDR---
"a year or two of cash in-home, some gold ...FDR---<br /><br />"a year or two of cash in-home, some gold and silver coins, some way out of the money options, etc, and the other obvious things you can do."<br /><br />Did you just say BUY gold/silver and hoarde it with a supply of cash?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-48651588743644607232009-04-23T09:03:00.000-04:002009-04-23T09:03:00.000-04:00Thanks a lot for the update.
Could you please pre...Thanks a lot for the update.<br /><br />Could you please present some charts / graphics on these options? Specially, #2 and #3?<br /><br />I got lost on that "c of 2 of 5 of A".<br /><br />Thanks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-9462390453710396772009-04-23T06:52:00.000-04:002009-04-23T06:52:00.000-04:00Thanks again FDR. Please update us on which option...Thanks again FDR. Please update us on which option you think is unfolding as time passes.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-59944410345382038572009-04-23T05:12:00.000-04:002009-04-23T05:12:00.000-04:00Whoah man, that's kinda scary :/ I thought we migh...Whoah man, that's kinda scary :/ I thought we might still have a few months of more or less muddling through and then a heat-up of things by the end of summer. As much as i think your deflation and global cooling forecasts are spot on, i hope to see you're wrong on this one. Yes, the Obama administration won't reset the system. I just wish it could still hang on a while and not totally break up. A lot of people are still way up in debt, little to no savings, let alone "a year or two of cash in-home, some gold and silver coins" :(<br />Anyways, kudos for keeping the posting up, love the blog.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com