tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post6141802991472526084..comments2023-08-10T11:39:24.714-04:00Comments on fdralloveragain: MAJOR Market Problemsfdralloveragainhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03488923148019117760noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-51422470514234080832010-01-18T23:56:40.170-05:002010-01-18T23:56:40.170-05:00"FDR I was just reading (Planet Yelnick) that..."FDR I was just reading (Planet Yelnick) that Robert Prechter is now calling Dow 400 by 2014. Yelnick picks this apart and seems to be on a similar price page/time frame as yourself. I'm thinking with the inflation/credit cycle of the last ninety years broken the previous patterns which so many are relying on to predict the future no longer have any relevance and we are now flying without charts or instruments. Seems such a scenario would ultimately serve to part the largest numbers of people (bulls and bears) with the most amount of their money/assets."<br /><br />I follow Bob because he's been such an incredible visionary since his 1982 call that you absolutely could not lose going long stocks with maximum leverage for the foreseeable future, as he accurately called the launch of the 5th Wave (probably within a much larger degree 5th wave, which literally defined and created public stock ownership, itself).<br /><br />So I'm familiar with Bob's similar price targets to my own. I don't recall him putting a 2014 time frame on them, though maybe I missed it. To the contrary, I thought he too was calling for a 2012 initial low--though he doesn't give a specific price target for that--mine is Dow 3,800ish, before an eventual collapse, also of some unspecified time frame.<br /><br />The truth is, the time dimension is difficult to predict with accuracy, since we dealing with huge wavelengths relative to our puny lives. But that doesn't preclude one from playing the unfolding trend.<br /><br />Enormous reversals like this one are ultimately the most profitable, as they are unfathomable for the 99.999% who engage in blind stock speculation.fdralloveragainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03488923148019117760noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-33477633344685129052010-01-18T09:54:44.893-05:002010-01-18T09:54:44.893-05:00FDR I was just reading (Planet Yelnick) that Rober...FDR I was just reading (Planet Yelnick) that Robert Prechter is now calling Dow 400 by 2014. Yelnick picks this apart and seems to be on a similar price page/time frame as yourself. I'm thinking with the inflation/credit cycle of the last ninety years broken the previous patterns which so many are relying on to predict the future no longer have any relevance and we are now flying without charts or instruments. Seems such a scenario would ultimately serve to part the largest numbers of people (bulls and bears) with the most amount of their money/assets.hettygreenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02942359318618747424noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-58487747352959371712010-01-17T17:45:05.084-05:002010-01-17T17:45:05.084-05:00"So a stock with a high p/e that misses earni..."So a stock with a high p/e that misses earnings should rise because earnings don't matter and forward looking, the be will be easier to beat?"<br /><br />Usually that's true, yes. In our unfolding mega-depression, it probably doesn't matter what short term earnings do, as the economy has already collapsed. It's all over but the accounting.<br /><br />Dow 3,800-ish by 2012 is the initial EW retracement guideline. It's kind of hard to imagine earnings wouldn't fall even more between now and then, sending the Dow much lower to find a more traditional depression P/E of around 6. But EW guidelines are pretty solid here, so I'm probably going to go long at approx 3.8K.<br /><br />Going long at Dow 3,800ish should be good for a 5-10 year ride before the Dow collapses to its EW-forecast bottom, well below 1,000.fdralloveragainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03488923148019117760noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8305505968390768234.post-47412178388050172192010-01-17T14:08:34.919-05:002010-01-17T14:08:34.919-05:00So a stock with a high p/e that misses earnings sh...So a stock with a high p/e that misses earnings should rise because earnings don't matter and forward looking, the be will be easier to beat?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com